American Thought Leaders - The Epoch Times
Who Will Prevail in US-China Trade War? Christopher Balding Explains the Playing Field
After Beijing retaliated to U.S. tariffs, President Donald Trump has now announced a tariff hike to 125 percent on Chinese products—and a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on other countries.
To understand what’s really going on, we’re speaking with one of the world’s leading experts on the Chinese economy.
Christopher Balding was a professor at Peking University’s HSBC School of Business until 2018 when he was fired for pushing back against censorship. Now, he is a senior fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and the founder of New Kite Data Labs.
“I think President Trump wants to push a very deep, ongoing decoupling from China, and I think he wants to promote that decoupling, not just with China, but [by] drawing at least a secondary moat around near allies like Mexico, Canada, parts of Europe, Japan, and South Korea,” Balding says.
CHAPTER TITLES
0:00:00 - Introduction: Trump's Tariff Announcement
0:00:30 - Christopher Balding: Background and Expertise
0:01:04 - Analyzing the 125% Tariff on China
0:02:06 - Trump's Strategic Approach to International Trade
0:03:01 - Evolving Trade Barriers Beyond Traditional Tariffs
0:04:45 - Transshipment and Closing Trade Loopholes
0:08:37 - The Existential Challenge of Global Trade
0:12:31 - China's Mercantilist Trade Policies
0:14:31 - Impact on Competing Economies
0:16:49 - US-China Trade Standoff: Negotiation or Decoupling?
0:20:48 - Bilateral Trade Relationships and Strategic Realignment
0:25:07 - Non-Tariff Barriers and Trade Complexities
0:27:23 - Currency Manipulation Dynamics
0:30:22 - Rationale for Acute Trade Measures
0:33:01 - Multilateral Institutions vs. Bilateral Relationships
0:35:26 - Challenging the Isolationist Narrative
0:37:48 - China's Economic Model and Rural Exploitation
0:44:21 - US Advantages in the Trade Standoff
0:47:20 - Potential Outcomes of Extreme Tariffs
0:51:17 - The Ongoing Cold War with China
0:54:12 - US Treasury Debt and Market Implications
0:57:30 - Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty
1:00:03 - Potential Impact on the Chinese Economy
1:02:50 - Strategic Negotiations with Other Countries
1:04:53 - Critical Supply Chain Dependencies
The interview was first released on Epoch TV on April 9, 2025.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTr2f-BqNyM