Greens leader Adam Bandt set to lose seat of Melbourne
David Crowe and Olivia Ireland - May 7, 2025
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Greens leader Adam Bandt is set to lose the seat of Melbourne in a shock defeat that leaves the party in disarray after a series of extraordinary setbacks at the election.
Labor claimed victory for its candidate, charity chief Sarah Witty, in the tight contest on Wednesday after gaining more than 53 per cent of the vote so far, but Bandt has not conceded.
The Australian Electoral Commission extended its booth-by-booth, two-party preferred count of the seat showing substantial swings to Witty, who was leading against Bandt by more than 2000 votes late on Wednesday afternoon.
In the key booth of Richmond, which Labor won 51-49 at the 2022 election, Witty won 61-38. In the nearby Cremorne booth, Witty enjoyed a 15 per cent swing while in Fitzroy - a Greens’ stronghold - she was boosted by a near 9 per cent swing.
ABC election analyst Anthony Green said on Wednesday afternoon that based on current voting trends, Bandt would lose the seat.
Greens observers said there were as many as 15,000 absentee and declaration votes still to be counted, which meant they were not conceding the seat. Among those outstanding votes are 4000 postal ballots, which Witty is winning 64-36.
A key factor in the voting so far was the way Labor gained ground across the board in terms of core support, increasing its primary vote in Melbourne by almost 6 per cent and taking second place to Bandt with these votes.
The stronger primary vote put Labor in a winning position on Wednesday afternoon because it gained support from voters who had selected Witty ahead of Bandt with their second and later preferences, highlighting the stronger support for Labor over alternatives, including the Liberals.
One Labor observer said most of the voters who chose the Liberals with their primary votes gave their preferences to Witty rather than Bandt, saying this reflected on the Greens’ policies and campaign.
Another Labor source said Bandt was receiving only 24 per cent of the preferences, but needed 33 per cent to win.
“He just needed more preferences to flow back to him,” he said.
A Greens spokesperson said the count had to proceed.
“While there are many, many thousands of votes to be counted, we are not conceding Melbourne,” the spokesperson said.
Witty is a housing advocate and chief executive of the Nappy Collective, which provides free nappies to families in crisis.
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