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A "HIGH INTEREST" RE-ENTRY
In 1972, the Soviet Union's Kosmos 482 spacecraft was supposed to land on Venus. More than 50 years later, it's returning to Earth instead. Touchdown is expected on May 10th, give or take a few days.
"This will not be your standard reentry," says satellite analyst Marco Langbroek, who has been tracking the object for years. "The Kosmos 482 Descent Craft was designed to survive the dense atmosphere of Venus. It will therefore likely survive reentry into the Earth’s atmosphere intact and make a crash landing. This will therefore be a high-interest reentry."
Kosmos 482 was part of the Soviet Union's successful Venera program to explore Venus. Between 1961 and 1984, thirteen Soviet probes successfully entered Venus's atmosphere, with ten landing on the planet's surface. Kosmos 482, however, never fully escaped Earth. After it was launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome on March 31, 1972, the upper stage of its Molniya rocket shut down prematurely, leaving it in a 206 x 9802 kilometer orbit that has been decaying ever since.
"With an orbital inclination of 52 degrees, the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft could come down anywhere between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude," says Langbroek. "This includes much of south and mid-latitude Europe and Asia, as well as the Americas, Africa and Australia." Statistically, an ocean landing is the most likely outcome.
The probe was designed to parachute to the surface of Venus. However, it is very unlikely that the parachute system will work after more than 50 years in space, so this will be a crash landing. How bad will it be? Many details of the descent craft have been lost to history. Langbroek believes it is about 1 meter in diameter with a mass of ~495 kg. It won't do major damage, but you wouldn't want to be standing where it lands.
For updates and improved re-entry predictions, stay tuned to Langbroek's blog. And welcome home, Kosmos 482!
picrel: A museum replica of Venera 8, a similar probe launched just days before Kosmos 482
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=01&month=05&year=2025