What are the odds of Yellowstone erupting?
AI Overview
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The Yellowstone supervolcano is not currently considered overdue for an eruption, and the likelihood of a major eruption in the near future is extremely low. While a large eruption is possible, the most recent volcanic activity was a lava flow 70,000 years ago. Scientists monitor the volcano for any signs of activity, but there are no indications of an imminent eruption.
Here's a more detailed look:
No signs of imminent eruption:
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors Yellowstone for volcanic activity, including earthquakes and ground movement, but there are no signs of a large eruption occurring in the near future.
Probability of a supereruption:
The annual probability of a caldera-forming eruption (like the previous supereruptions) is estimated at about 0.00014%, based on the intervals between past major eruptions.
Magma chamber:
The magma chamber beneath Yellowstone is only 5-15% molten, which means there may not be enough magma to fuel a large eruption.
Last eruption:
The most recent volcanic activity at Yellowstone was a lava flow on the Pitchstone Plateau 70,000 years ago.
Yellowstone is not overdue:
The idea that Yellowstone is overdue for an eruption is based on an average of the time intervals between past supereruptions, which doesn't accurately reflect the behavior of volcanic systems.