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Sullivan and Blinken were making decisions on Ukraine, not Joe
What Jake Sullivan privately said about the war
By ALEXANDER WARD, PAUL MCLEARY and MATT BERG
02/24/202304:00 PM EST
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — Russia would probably use tactical nukes on Ukraine in the unlikely event it went nuclear at all, and the Biden administration needs to think through security guarantees to Kyiv so the Kremlin never dreams of invasion again.
That’s what national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told experts on a Thursday afternoon Zoom call, according to four people familiar with the conversation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a “Chatham House Rules” talk.
On the first point, Sullivan said that there’s truly no concern that VLADIMIR PUTIN would use strategic nuclear weapons on Ukraine or on Western allies. There are still internal fears he might order the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian battlefield, though there’s currently no acute sign that that’s going to happen soon.
And on the second,Sullivan briefed that President JOE BIDEN spoke in Kyiv with his counterpart, VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, about what sort of “commitments” the United States could provide Ukraine after peace talks had concluded. Those commitments would have to be strong enough to deter Russia from invading Ukraine again, the national security adviser said per the people, while noting that the end of fighting or real negotiations aren’t in sight.
Sullivan did not discuss the specific intelligence that led him to the tactical nukes assessment nor the specifics of what Biden and Zelenskyy discussed, though he was asked questions about both issues.
The NSC declined a request to comment.
In October, Biden said it would be a “serious, serious mistake” if Russia dropped tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine. Russian military leaders have held conversations about when and/or if to use them, U.S. officials have said.
Zelenskyy’s administration has for months pushed the U.S. to provide it with security guarantees, including “scalable weapons transfers and intelligence support from allies, intensive training missions and joint exercises under the European Union and NATO flags.” Ukraine has also made no secret it wants to join NATO, though there’s no indication membership is a near-term reality. However, Germany, France and the United Kingdom are weighing a defense pact with Ukraineas a way to incentivize Kyiv to engage in peace talks.
Talk of some sort of post-war commitment to Ukraine’s security has been bubbling up in recent days, as allies take stock at the war’s one-year mark.
“We definitely need to look at security commitments for the next steps,” Canadian Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference last weekend. “Even after the war, Russia will still be a very dangerous neighbor, particularly if Putin is in charge, and so we need to make sure that Ukraine is able not only to defend itself, but also to show deterrence. In that sense, thinking about the long-term security support to Ukraine is important. And so this is a conversation that we are starting.”
Administration officials routinely meet with outside experts and opinion makers. Sullivan’s talk follows a similar conversation Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN held with experts last week in which he said Ukraine’s seizure of Crimea is Putin’s “red line.” Last year, two top NSC officials — AMANDA SLOAT and ERIC GREEN — hopped on a weekly call with experts to discuss their pre-war thinking about the crisis Russia started. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Dozens of hours of interviews with top U.S. officials — like national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES — led to an intimate, raw picture of the behind-the-scenes thinking and planning for the war to come.
Here’s Sullivan, speaking to how the idea to declassify intelligence on Russian planning came to be:
SWEEPING SANCTIONS: A new year of war, a new slate of sanctions against Russia.
When asked for details on the type of fighter jets or when they may be delivered, Kirby refused to elaborate.
“That’s really as far as I’m going to be allowed to go here,” Kirby said. “We’re going to be watching this very closely to see what, if anything, actually transpires.”
On Thursday night, Sullivan said the fighter planes aren’t what Ukraine needs right now.
“From our perspective, F-16s are not the key capability for that offensive. It is the stuff that we are moving rapidly to the front lines now,” he said on CNN.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/02/24/what-jake-sullivan-privately-said-about-the-war-00084290