Padraig Martin
@PadraigMartin
1h
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Iran Thoughts
For those of you who don't know, my Masters Degree was specifically in the study of Iran. More importantly, I studied the unique nature of Iran's Shi'ite legal structure and its exportation of ideologically aligned, local non state armed groups. My thesis was released in both a classified and non-classified version. Elements of that report were used in Israel, Germany, Russia, the UK, and of course, the United States. My open thesis has been cited in more than a thousand articles and sources.
For many years, I worked on the periphery of Iran and Iranian power structures in Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Gaza & the West Bank, Yemen, Iraq, western Afghanishan, and other areas whereby either Iran or Iranian proxies exist. I know Iran and Iranian security very well. What started as a deep-seated hatred for Iran turned into a genuine admiration and respect for the Islamic Republic.
Now that I am permanently banned from US government work, that degree sits on my wall at home, collecting dust as a reminder of operations I conducted in the past. But I am also free to speak my mind.
Anyone telling you that the Iranian regime/ power structure is near collapse is lying. They do not know what they are talking about or they do, and they want you to enlarge the war. The political and social infrastructure of Iran is very elaborate. It is designed to withstand external pressures. In fact, the system- which includes financiers, common militia, a hard core military element, the clergy, and a variety of interconnected family networks - is far more resilient than anything we have ever faced.
Whereas the Shah was toppled in the 1970s, his overthrow was a manifestation of lost support by that network. Despite a small Marxist movement (MEK) that took the US Embassy during a power vacuum, the Grand Ayatollah Khomeini knew his people well. He cultivated an anti-Western persona that rejected modernity imposed by the 1963 White Revolution. The 1953 overthrow of Mosaddegh was not the issue for Khomeini or his followers. Lascivious immorality was the problem.
Today, the more Israel or anyone else strikes at Iran, the system colaesces and gets stronger. Think of a turtle going into its shell. The system will weather the storm. The intricacies of Iran have been developed by an origin story in Shi'ite concepts of justice and bravery, dating to the 4th Imam, Ali in Abi Talib. For centuries, Iranian concepts of religious identity coupled with a history that dates well before the 5th century BC, have created a unique ethnic and religious personality. Underestimating them is foolish.
Are there likely some young Iranians claiming to hate the government in urban Tehran? Sure. What country does not have its ideological youth complaining? But understand that they are the minority. Neither Mossad nor the CIA has eyes in the heartland of Iran. Imagine believing Trump can be overthrown because twenty-somethings in New York City hate "the orange king." The vast majority of heartland America would not tolerate the overthrow of Trump - whom they supported overwhelmingly in three elections.
Do not be fooled by the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, Fox News, or CBS. Iran will not lose this war and it certainly will not have a massive popular revolution. If anything, Iran is getting stronger and its resolve will not fail.
https://gab.com/PadraigMartin/posts/114699957477041328