Top economist who previously sounded the alarm on tariffs sees a possible scenario where Trump ‘outsmarted all of us’

Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, laid out a potential scenario where President Donald Trump’s tariffs are extended long enough to ease economic uncertainty while also providing a significant bump to federal revenue. That comes as the 90-day pause on Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” is nearing an end.

Businesses and consumers remain in limbo over what will happen next with President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but a top economist sees a way to leave them in place and still deliver a “victory for the world.”

In a note on Saturday titled “Has Trump Outsmarted Everyone on Tariffs?”, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Sløk laid out a scenario that keeps tariffs well below Trump’s most aggressive rates long enough to ease uncertainty and avoid the economic harm that comes with it.

“Maybe the strategy is to maintain 30% tariffs on China and 10% tariffs on all other countries and then give all countries 12 months to lower non-tariff barriers and open up their economies to trade,” he speculated.

https://fortune.com/2025/06/21/trump-tariffs-outsmarted-us-all-10-percent-federal-revenue-economy/