$286 to $1M from ‘Reversing Stupidity’
“Semi" deposited $286 on Polymarket in June 2024. Since then, this reclusive trader, who uses a default Discord profile pic and has just 215 followers on X, has run his lifetime Polymarket PnL up to over $1 million by – as he puts it – betting against stupidity. His strategy is simple: look for overvalued bets and take the other side.
When the bros think they can predict the next Pope (an event that has happened just 7 times in the last 100 years), he fades them. When MAGA traders, riding high from the 2024 victory, bet that Trump will fulfill each and every one of his campaign promises within 100 days, he takes the other side. And when pundits are hyperventilating about World War III, he bets on a return to the status quo. The Oracle spoke with Semi to discuss his approach to finding dumb money, why he lost big on Trump's cabinet picks, and what he’s betting on now.
This interview has been edited for length. All answers are his own.
How did you get into prediction markets?
I got in around 2017 after Trump won. I was really, really shocked by it. Based on everything I read, it seemed impossible. I found prediction markets pretty quickly and thought, "This is an elegant way to represent probability, what people are actually willing to bet."
But for years I assumed these markets were filled with really smart people, perfectly efficient, nothing I could contribute. It wasn't until June, 2024 that I thought, "Maybe I should actually try this." Turns out I'm quite good at it. I deposited about $100 and very quickly doubled it. So I thought, "This is dumb, I shouldn't do this with so little money." I deposited $200 more. Never needed to deposit again. I just scaled up by winning.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sponsored-post/286-1m-reversing-stupidity