Solar activity and mortality: a meta-analysis of six cities in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590162125000425#:~:text=Overall%2C%20this%20study%20suggests%20a,and%20Nicosia%2C%20Cyprus)%2C%20after
Abstract
Background
Solar and geomagnetic activity have been linked to a multitude of impacts on human health including cardiovascular disease (CVD), and total non-accidental mortality. However, this has not been assessed in the Eastern Mediterranean Region or the Middle East. Our study aimed to assess the effects of short-term geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) on mortality in six locations across the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East regions (Athens, Thessaloniki, Crete, Greece; Kuwait City, Kuwait; Limassol and Nicosia, Cyprus).
Methods
We used a time series analysis adjusted for temperature and humidity over the period between 1997 and 2019 to estimate the effects of GMD (Kp index, sunspot number - SSN, plasma beta, and interplanetary magnetic field - IMF) on daily total non-accidental, CVD, and respiratory mortality, for each study area. We applied meta-analysis to estimate the pooled GMD mortality effect across all locations.
Results
Our analysis included 664,427 deaths over the study period. Kp index was found to be significantly associated with total, CVD, and respiratory mortality. There was a 0.94 % (95 % CI: 0.019, 1.87) increase in total non-accidental mortality; a 0.63 % (95 % CI: 0.013, 1.25) increase in CVD mortality; and a 2.53 % (95 % CI: 0.36, 4.75) increase in respiratory mortality per IQR increase in Kp index (IQR = 15.63). However, solar activity parameters (SSN, Plasma beta, or IMF) were not statistically significantly associated with mortality.
Conclusions
Our findings indicate an association between exposure to higher levels of Kp index and total non-accidental, CVD and respiratory mortality in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Regions. The results warrant additional exploration to ascertain if variations in solar activity-driven human physiological dynamics may also be linked to other health consequences.