California teens are ditching office jobs — and making $100K before they turn 21 (pipe fitting)
It’s noon on a Thursday, but the day’s lunch break is already over and the cement building in Concord is once again full. Class is in session. A dozen students — most dressed in gray canvas button-downs and baseball caps — sit with rapt attention facing the whiteboard at the front of the room. But the topic of today’s lesson isn’t biology, math or literature. It’s how to fabricate drawings for pipe fitting.
The students here are apprentices with United Association Local 342, a union that trains and represents workers in the pipe trades industries. They’ll complete a five-year paid apprenticeship to graduate as journeymen — and expect to earn a union wage of $80.50 an hour. Trainees cite a desire to work with their hands and the competitive pay as reasons for pursuing a career in the skilled trades. But young adults entering the workforce are facing a new challenge that is increasing the attractiveness of blue-collar jobs: the rapid development of artificial intelligence.
Data from the Federal Reserve shows that among recent college graduates, the unemployment rates for majors once heralded as tickets to high-salary, high-status jobs like computer engineering and computer science were 7.5% and 6.1%, respectively. In contrast, construction services majors’ unemployment rate was just 0.7%.
Experts say Silicon Valley’s AI models’ capabilities are encroaching on many entry-level white-collar jobs. The CEO of generative AI powerhouse Anthropic told Axios in May that AI could erase half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and drive unemployment to 10% to 20% in the next one to five years.
In order to secure a stable career insulated from AI job theft, many young people are turning to trade work. A May survey from Resume Builder of 1,434 Generation Z adults found that over a quarter of blue-collar Gen Z workers cited wanting jobs that were less likely to be replaced by AI as a reason for choosing their career paths. An August study from Zety of 1,000 Gen Z adults reported that 43% of respondents have changed or adjusted their career plans because of AI’s influence.
Meanwhile, instructors at vocational schools and apprenticeships told SFGATE they’ve seen a boost in interest in their programs, and more students are beginning their training straight out of high school.
“I think since ChatGPT really started taking off, that kind of opened people’s eyes,” Jonathan Cronan, an HVAC and refrigeration instructor at San Jose Community College, said. “They were like, all right, this is here sooner than I thought it was going to be. I better pick a good career path.”
Microsoft predicted that the jobs facing the least threat from AI were overwhelmingly blue-collar, including plasters, roofers and pile drivers.
But trade work has appeals far beyond being a safe haven from AI. Graduates from apprenticeships or community college programs enter the workforce with a fraction of the debt of a four-year college degree, or no debt at all. And most skilled industry jobs are represented by unions that guarantee medical benefits and competitive salaries.
Robert Chon, the outreach coordinator at the Electrical Training Alliance of Silicon Valley, said graduates of the apprenticeship program who join the local electricians’ union in Santa Clara earn a starting salary of $91 per hour. He estimates the training program’s acceptance rate to be 5%.
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https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/young-adults-changing-career-paths-ai-20824566.php