Disagree on the too early
Bacon, because you're cool
Project44: Transpacific Blank Sailings Surge to Unprecedented Levels Amid Trump’s Tariff Shock
Mike Schuler October 6, 2025
Blank sailings between the U.S. and China are set to reach unprecedented levels in October 2025, according to a new analysis from project44, with 67 blank sailings planned from China to the U.S. and 71 from the U.S. to China. The analysis points out that these figures exceed those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the severe disruption in maritime trade caused by recent tariff implementations by Trump Administration.
The “Liberation Day” tariffs, which went into effect in early August, represent “the most wide-ranging tariff implementation in modern U.S. history,” creating an uncertain and volatile environment for global trade.
Trade lanes most heavily impacted include U.S. West Coast to Southeast Asia, which saw a dramatic 75% increase in blank sailings year-over-year, while China to U.S. West Coast and Southeast Asia to U.S. West Coast experienced increases of 46.5% and 40.7% respectively. These figures underscore how carriers are managing weaker demand and adjusting to uncertainty.
“Carriers are blanking sailings at an intensity we haven’t seen since the early pandemic period. The strategy is less about crisis response this time and more about maintaining rate stability in a tariff-distorted market,” noted veteran supply chain analyst and former Gartner research leader Bart De Myunck.
The impact on U.S.-China trade has been particularly severe. Imports from China are trending 27% lower year-to-date compared to 2024, while exports to China have dropped even more dramatically, down 42%. Following modest gains in January and February, volumes fell steeply, with declines of 38% in April, 46% in May, and 41% in September for imports. Export declines have been consistently negative, with particularly steep drops of 57% in April, 53% in May, and 53% again in August.
Despite these significant shifts in specific trade lanes, the broader proportions of U.S. imports and exports by country have seen only modest changes, suggesting most U.S. companies have not significantly restructured their sourcing or customer bases. However, early signs of sourcing diversification are emerging, with Indonesia and Thailand showing monthly increases of 11-81% compared to 2024 as alternative suppliers to China, according to project44.
As the maritime industry continues to navigate these challenges, project44 concludes that “tariffs are influencing the timing and reliability of shipments more than the geography of supply chains,” though the outlook for 2026 remains “highly contingent on future tariff decisions and trade negotiations”.
https://gcaptain.com/project44-transpacific-blank-sailings-surge-to-unprecedented-levels-amid-trumps-tariff-shock
What is Blank Sailing?
Blank sailings refer to situations where shipping lines cancel scheduled voyages or skip ports on their shipping routes. These decisions are typically made by carriers during port congestion, or when cargo handling and clearance are exceptionally slow. This is also known as void sailing.
For example, imagine your cargo is scheduled to depart from Hamburg and arrive at Jeddah, passing through several key ports. Due to congestion at a port or low cargo demand, the carrier decides to skip a stop, delaying your shipment by weeks. Such instances of blank sailing disrupt schedules and often lead to additional costs like demurrage and detention charges.
Although, please keep in mind that blank sailing is not the same as port omission, as omissions take place when vessels are full or don’t have enough containers to pick up.
How blank sailings impact supply chains
It disturbs the timely delivery of goods, leading to possible stock shortages, production delays, and customer dissatisfaction.
The ambiguity of blank sailings makes it difficult for companies to plan and manage their inventory efficiently.
The lack of visibility on skipped ports and canceled schedules creates added costs for shippers.
How are demurrage and detention linked to blank sailing?
Blank sailing reduces available containers and vessel space, creating higher demand when ships finally arrive at ports. This demand often leads to delays in retrieving and returning containers, causing consignees to exceed the free time allowed for unloading (demurrage) and returning (detention). These fees can quickly accumulate, significantly increasing shipping costs.
Blank sailing also delays filled containers. Terminal operators may cancel shifts due to fewer imports, leaving containers stuck at ports past their free days, triggering soaring D&D charges—sometimes exceeding the container’s value.
https://www.container-xchange.com/blog/blank-sailing
Any planefags around? Wondering if the airways are also being messed with
Qatar Eases Unprecedented Maritime Restrictions Following GPS Disruption
Mike Schuler October 6, 2025
Qatar’s Ministry of Transport on Monday partially lifted an unprecedented nationwide maritime navigation suspension, now allowing daytime sailing for non-conventional vessels while maintaining nighttime restrictions. The decision comes two days after authorities imposed a complete suspension of maritime activities on October 4 in what analysts described as “virtually unheard of.”
The technical malfunction affecting GPS systems remains unresolved, with officials warning that navigation accuracy continues to be compromised. In its latest directive, the MOT has implemented strict guidelines for recreational vessels, requiring them to return to port before sunset and remain within 12 nautical miles of shore.
The initial suspension represented a rare national-level halt to maritime traffic. Despite the sweeping nature of the original order, LNG carriers and other commercial vessels appeared to receive exemptions, with AIS data showing continued operations near Doha and Ras Laffan, according to an analysis from Trident Risk Advisors.
Trident said reports from users in Doha described location “drifts” toward Iran, fueling speculation about possible electronic interference or GPS spoofing activity in the region. Such incidents align with growing concerns about navigation security throughout the Persian Gulf and beyond.
The analysis notes that this disruption highlights vulnerabilities in global maritime navigation systems. GPS interference and spoofing have become persistent threats to shipping lanes from the Baltic Sea to the Persian Gulf. The incident raises questions about the potential for “hybrid disruptions” that blend technical malfunctions, deliberate interference, and geopolitical signaling—presenting genuine risks to international trade routes and energy supply chains.
Qatar’s MOT emphasized that the partial lifting of restrictions reflects its commitment to “the safety of seagoers and their safe return to their ports”, while urging strict compliance with the modified regulations.
https://gcaptain.com/qatar-eases-unprecedented-maritime-restrictions-following-gps-disruption