7 Oct, 2025 14:441/2Interesting Analysis
Behind the illusion of deadlock: what’s really happening in the Ukraine conflict
This is the war the West can’t win, can’t end, and can’t afford
By Vasily Kashin, Political Science PhD, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies, HSE
Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, talk of a “stalemate” in Ukraine has become a convenient Western refrain – the kind of phrase that sounds sober while disguising strategic drift.In reality, what looks static on the battlefield conceals deep political movement, both in Washington and in the war itself.
Trump’s early approach to the conflict was loud but logical: impose a ceasefire along existing lines, freeze the situation, and move on. His mix of threats and incentives – sanctions on one hand, the promise of renewed partnership on the other – echoed the same objectives the Biden administration privately pursued in 2024.
The difference was style. Biden lacked the political strength and health to launch a diplomatic campaign;Kamala Harris might have, had she succeeded him.Trump, by contrast, acted decisively. He made his will known to the generals, the allies, and the public in his usual unfiltered fashion.
When efforts to force India and China to participate in an oil embargo failed over the summer, Washington pivoted to negotiation. The White House began floating the idea of a broader “security guarantees” deal – a truce embedded within a larger settlement.The battle today is over what those guarantees would mean in practice.
A personal, centralized policy
Trump has stripped away layers of bureaucracy, bringing Russia policy directly under his control and that of a few loyal aides. There is little expert machinery around it. The military-to-military channels that should be discussing demobilization or verification measures remain idle.
Instead, theTrump administration is trying to present Moscow with a finished product– a ready-made Western consensus hammered out with Western Europe and Kiev – and demand that Russia either accept or face the consequences.
At the same time,Washington is ratcheting up pressure: verbal barbs like calling Russia a “paper tiger,” leaks about longer-range missiles, and renewed attempts to isolate Russian oil exports through India. In every respect, Ukraine is marching in lockstep with the United States, from political messaging to targeting decisions.
Trump’s central claim is that America can now afford to step back – that Western Europe, armed with pooled resources and US-made weapons, can sustain Ukraine indefinitely.In this vision, Washington sells the arms, the EU pays the bills, and Russia bleeds slowly.
It is a neat theory, but delusional in practice. The US remains deeply embedded in the war’s infrastructure. American satellites guide Ukraine’s drones and artillery; American communications systems knit together its command structure. Efforts to substitute British OneWeb for Starlink have gone nowhere.
Although Brussels (and London) covers much of the cost,the US still funds tens of thousands of troops deployed across the continent, as well as the logistics chain that keeps them active. This drains resources from the Pacific at a time when Washington is already stretched thin against China.
https://www.rt.com/russia/626032-war-west-cant-win/