I like the theory.
I think you need to tie china into it as well.
https://search.brave.com/search?q=chinese+investment+in+venezuela&summary=1&conversation=81351cc8be3be73bed333a
China continues to maintain a significant investment presence in Venezuela, primarily focused on the oil sector, despite past projects facing criticism for inefficiency and lack of oversight. A notable recent development is the involvement of the private Chinese firm China Concord Resources Corp (CCRC), which began developing two oilfields in western Venezuela under a 20-year production sharing contract signed in May 2024.
CCRC plans to invest over $1 billion and aims to increase production from 12,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 60,000 bpd by the end of 2026, marking a rare instance of a private Chinese company operating in the U.S.-sanctioned OPEC nation.
This project is part of a broader strategic relationship where China remains Venezuela’s largest trading partner and creditor, having provided an estimated $60 billion in loans and investments since the early 2000s, primarily tied to oil exports.
Recent Oil Investment by Private Chinese Firm: In August 2025, it was reported that CCRC has begun operations in the Lago Cinco and Lagunillas Lago oilfields in Lake Maracaibo, having sent around 60 Chinese staff and a drill rig to restart production.
The jackup rig Alula arrived in Venezuela in September 2025, and current output stands at 12,000 bpd, with plans to expand to 500 wells and reach 60,000 bpd by the end of 2026.
The project operates under Venezuela’s Anti-Blockade Law, which allows foreign firms to act as operators in exchange for a share of production.
Historical and Strategic Investment Framework: Since the 2000s, China has invested heavily in Venezuela, with total loans and investments estimated at around $68.7 billion between 1999 and 2019, including a $22 billion agreement between 2003 and 2017 for 17 infrastructure and energy projects that largely failed to deliver.
The relationship is rooted in a strategic alliance, with China providing financing and Venezuela supplying oil, a dynamic that has persisted despite economic collapse and hyperinflation in Venezuela.
The China-Venezuela Joint Financing Fund, initially established in 2007 with $6 billion, was later maintained at $5 billion, and the China-Venezuela Long-Term Financing Cooperation Framework Agreement in 2010 added a $10 billion loan.
New Bilateral Investment Treaty and Economic Diversification: In November 2024, Venezuela ratified a new Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) with China, signaling a renewed commitment to economic cooperation and industrialization efforts, with China expressing interest in deepening collaboration.
This treaty comes amid a shift from traditional loan-based financing to more productive, project-based deals, as highlighted by Venezuelan officials who emphasize new investments in energy fields rather than new loans.
Despite past allegations of overpricing and corruption in joint ventures, China continues to be Venezuela’s primary oil buyer, purchasing over 90% of its exports.