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Europe's Counter-Plan For Ukraine Peace Leaves Door Wide Open For NATO Admission
Even as the Trump White House is busy in Europe trying to get NATO and EU states on board its 28-point peace plan which controversially demands the Ukrainian side cede territory, the Europeans have leaked their own counter-plan which proposes much less in the way of compromise with Russia.
The UK, France, and Germany have put forward their own counter-proposal, and the draft differs sharply from the US version. Like with prior proposed deals, it contains terms which Moscow is expected to flatly reject, mostly notably it does not provide guarantees that Ukraine will stay out of NATO, and also absent is the ceding of any territory.
While Trump's plan makes clear that Ukraine must renounce ever joining NATO, the European draft states that Ukraine’s potential NATO membership "depends on the consensus of NATO members, which does not exist." This intentionally ambiguous language of course leaves leaves the door wide open, dependent on when such consensus is reached.
On giving up land, the European document says that any discussions on territorial exchanges would start from the current Line of Contact. Freezing the front lines is something President Zelensky has wanted to do all along. Moscow has seen in this a way of allowing Ukrainian forces to regroup and rearm.
Zelensky is already not happy with the US version of the peace plan, as Ukraine would surrender the areas of Donbas it still controls, and the front lines would be frozen in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - where Russian forces also holds territory.
However, one place where the US and European drafts do appear to be in lock-step is the one area the Kremlin is likely to take serious issue to: Washington and the West would provide security guarantee for Ukraine resembling NATO's Article 5 mutual-defense commitment.
Kiev has meanwhile been given until Thursday to provide its official response to the 28-point plan, and currently it simply looks like it is seeking the backing of Europe in coming up with a more robust pro-Ukraine plan. Trump wants to see the whole thing agreed to by Thanksgiving Day, but this is unlikely to happen, given also the leaks and ongoing blame-game over 'compromising' too much with Russia.
But all serious analysts are in agreement that Russia is dominating on the battlefield, leaving Ukraine with few options but to seek serious compromise to end the war. For example, one observer while commenting on the European plan notes it has no teeth (from Russia's perspective) and predictably Moscow will not see anything attractive in such a deal, which resembles previously failed ones, as it has:
No ban on Ukraine joining NATO
Ukraine is "not be forced to be neutral"
Ukraine is free to invite "friendly forces"
Ceasefire & freezing current front lines
"No restriction" on size of Ukrainian military etc.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/europes-counter-plan-ukraine-peace-door-left-wide-open-ukraines-nato-admission