Global Trade Braces for the Hangover After Trump’s Tariff Year
Bloomberg December 26, 2025
By Brendan Murray (Bloomberg) — The global trading system, which is finishing up one of its most transformational years of the past century, heads into another facing more challenges to stability and growth.
Merchandise trade across the world held up relatively well through 2025, even as US President Donald Trump started erecting a tariff wall around the world’s largest economy. Data cited this week by shipping industry veteran John McCown show global container volumes grew 2.1% in October from a year earlier.
Yet beneath the overall resilience are shifting undercurrents: The US saw a 8% contraction in inbound volumes, while imports into Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and India all showed robust growth.
“World container supply chains have already begun to adapt and reconfigure trading patterns,” McCown wrote in a research note on Monday. After the US in 2024 saw a 15.2% gain in container imports for the full year, “to say that the annual total for 2025 will be in diametric contrast is an understatement.”
Trump’s trade threats were among the chief reasons for the rewiring of shipments, according to McCown. If 2025 was the year of the tariff, he wrote in a LinkedIn post, then 2026 will be the year of tariff consequences.
Revisiting USMCA
The US, Canada and Mexico are about to start reviewing the North American free-trade deal that took effect in 2020. The negotiations will take the three nations into “new territory” given the novelty of the provision allowing for an update after just six years, according to comments by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to lawmakers this month.
Greer said the government received more than 1,500 responses during the public comment period ahead of the coming review.
“Many stakeholders expressed support for the USMCA and many explicitly called for the agreement to be extended,” Greer said. “At the same time, virtually all stakeholders also called for some sort of improvement to the agreement.”
But any “improvement” for one of the three members of the trade bloc risks coming at the expense of another. And that sets the stage for a tough round of talks for the largest US trading partners, whose industries are strugging amid American import taxes. Ties are already strained between the US and Canada, after Trump terminated trade talks with the northern neighbor in October — in response to anti-tariff ads featuring Ronald Reagan.
The Supreme Court
Among the biggest unknowns in trade circles heading into 2026 is a pending US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs — the broad levies he imposed on most major trading partners.
If Trump does lose the case, one of the most consequential questions for the economy and the country’s fiscal outlook will be whether the government will have to refund the money that American importers paid in tariffs. It’s not clear cut that’ll happen in a timely or organized way.
Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told CBS’s Face the Nation that even if the high court doesn’t rule in the administration’s favor, it would be “pretty unlikely that they’re going to call for widespread refunds, because it would be an administrative problem” to distribute those.
Betting markets have put about a 75% chance on a Trump loss, which means the administration will have to use other authorities at the president’s disposal to impose tariffs.
Asked at the Atlantic Council earlier this month whether 2026 will be quieter on the tariff front than this year, Greer declined to offer a forecast. “That’s a question for President Trump,” he said.
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https://gcaptain.com/global-trade-braces-for-the-hangover-after-trumps-tariff-year/
“Many stakeholders expressed support for the USMCA and many explicitly called for the agreement to be extended,” Oh, I'll bet they did. I have my guesses who they are but want to see if they expose themselves in the First Quarter