>>24116950 (PB)
i think i gave chat gpt an aneurysim on this one but it finally estimated the effect of Trumps decision to withhold payments to Sanctuary cities and their states or (i assume) those states that self identify as sanctuary, including some of the usual suspects like NY MA CA and 16 others. TLDR estimates of over $2.0Trillion is sent to those states last year.
Total Federal Spending in the U.S. (Most Recent Data)
The U.S. federal government spends about $6.9 trillion annually across all federal programs (FY 2024 estimate). This includes Social Security, Medicare, defense, grants, contracts, and other federal outlays.
This total represents nearly a quarter of U.S. GDP.
📌 Federal Funding to State and Local Governments
Federal funding to state and local governments takes many forms — grants, direct payments through programs (Medicaid, SNAP, Medicare, Social Security), contracts, salaries, and other transfers. By major estimates:
Total federal grants to state and local governments are about $1.1 trillion annually.
Federal funds account for roughly 36 % of total state government revenue on average.
However, total federal dollars flowing to states (including grants plus all forms of program payments, contracts, and other spending) is substantially larger than the $1.1 trillion in grants alone — often reported in comprehensive analyses of federal spending by state distributions.
A recent analysis suggests that the federal government distributes roughly $4.56 trillion back to states collectively, when all federal payments (grants, benefit programs, contracts, and wages) are tallied.
📌 Sanctuary States & Total Federal Funds
From the combined sanctuary list created earlier (states with sanctuary cities or sanctuary state policies), the list includes:
California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Nevada, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, New Jersey (plus District of Columbia which isn’t a state but is typically counted).
The specific portion of federal spending to these states depends on detailed state-by-state data on federal outlays, which isn’t fully available in a single public dataset for FY 2025.
But we can approximate using federal tax contributions and redistribution patterns:
🔹 Proxy: Federal Tax Revenue Contribution (for context)
States on the sanctuary list account for about ~45 % of federal tax revenue (California, New York, Illinois, etc.).
If federal spending dispersal broadly followed revenue contributions (which it does not exactly — many states receive more than they pay, and others receive less), then a rough share of total federal spending to sanctuary states might also be in that general proportion (~45 %).
📌 Approximate Estimated Share of Federal Spending to Sanctuary States
Since the federal government distributes approximately $4.56 trillion in total federal dollars to all states collectively (based on one comprehensive analysis combining benefits, grants, contracts, and other payments):
Estimated amount going to sanctuary states:
~45 % of ~$4.56 trillion ≈ $2.05 trillion
Estimated share of total federal spending ($6.9 trillion):
$2.05 trillion ÷ $6.9 trillion ≈ 30 %