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Recent legislation enacted by lawmakers has made the program’s financial issues more imminent. That includes the Social Security Fairness Act, which increased benefits for certain public pensioners, and the “big beautiful bill,” which reduces tax rates seniors pay.
In particular, the fund dedicated to retirement benefits may run out by late 2032, according to the latest estimates from the Social Security Administration’s chief actuary. If Congress does not act, beneficiaries may face an estimated 24% benefit cut.
Notably, benefits would still be payable, as the program would have money coming in from payroll taxes.
If the program reaches that depletion date without congressional action to reform the program, there are several ways benefits may be affected, depending on the interpretation of the law, Nuñez said. Among the possibilities include an across-the-board benefit cut, prioritization of payments to the most vulnerable beneficiaries or staggering full benefit payments on a delayed schedule.
Social Security has been in this situation before. In 1982, the balance of the retirement trust fund fell to zero, prompting the government to temporarily authorize loans from the disability and Medicare trust funds.
In 1983, Congress passed legislation to shore up Social Security’s finances that included changes like raising the full retirement age and applying federal income taxes on benefits.
That package of reforms was slated to shore up the program for 75 years.
Yet the projected shortfall is coming much sooner.
There was a lot that lawmakers at the time got right, Nuñez said, such as anticipating the large size of the baby boomer population that would eventually claim benefits, as well as demographic changes, including a declining fertility rate and increased longevity.
Income inequality, Great Recession affect projections
Two surprises — earnings inequality and the Great Recession — have prompted the projected depletion dates to move up sooner.
Those two factors caused the program to start drawing down its reserves around 2009, much sooner than had been projected in 2021 and 2022, according to Nuñez.
Had the trust funds matured as projected, the depletion date would have been around 2063, rather than roughly 2034, the date Social Security’s trustees identified for the combined funds in their 2025 report.
Income inequality has affected how much the program takes in from the FICA payroll tax, which is applied to earnings up to a certain cap that is adjusted each year. In 2026, that limit is $184,500. Earnings up to that amount are subject to a 6.2% payroll tax paid by workers and another 6.2% paid by their employers.
In 1983, 90% of earnings were below the Social Security FICA payroll tax cap.
Yet projections that the percentage would stay about the same with future average annual earnings growth proved to be inaccurate.
Average real earnings grew as expected. Yet those gains were “unexpectedly unequal,” Nuñez said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/23/will-social-security-run-out-is-the-wrong-question-economist-says.html