Top Overnight News
President Trump has received multiple U.S. intelligence reports indicating that the Iranian government’s position is weakening, according to several people familiar with the information. The reports signal that the Iranian government’s hold on power is at its weakest point since the shah was overthrown in the 1979 revolution. WSJ
South Korea scrambled on Tuesday to assure the U.S. it remained committed to implementing a trade deal after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would hike tariffs on autos and other imports from its ally, blaming a delay in enacting the pact agreed last year. RTRS
India and the European Union said Tuesday they have reached a free-trade agreement that will open a new market for European cars and other products, showing how the world’s middle powers are expanding alliances in response to President Trump’s tariffs. WSJ
The Trump administration has indicated to Ukraine that US security guarantees are contingent on Kyiv first agreeing a peace deal that would likely involve ceding the Donbas region to Russia. FT
China’s industrial enterprises had their first annual gain in profits since 2021, as producer deflation showed signs of easing in the wake of government efforts to curb excess competition and cut capacity. Profits climbed 5.3% in December from a year earlier, rising for the first time in three months and recovering from a plunge of more than 13% in November. BBG
Japan’s bond meltdown sparked speculation that the $1.8 trillion GPIF might shift its portfolio allocation to JGBs while reducing foreign bond holdings, particularly Treasuries. BBG
Trump said he will increase the tariff rate on South Korean imports from 15% to 25% unless the South Korean National Assembly approved the trade deal struck back in July. NYT
US natural gas fell, with traders taking profits after prices shot up almost 30% on Monday amid freezing temperatures that pushed up heating demand. BBG
Republicans and President Trump designed their tax cuts for this moment, creating a refund bonanza that will land in Americans’ bank accounts well ahead of the midterm elections. The annual tax-filing season that opened Monday will produce a cash surge estimated at $100 billion beyond last year’s $329 billion total. WSJ
Philippines said they conducted joint military exercises with the US in the South China Sea: Al Arabiya.
US ambassador to China Perdue said in Bloomberg TV interview that China and the US completed most agreements made in Busan, South Korea.
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