Short trail from tomorrow's Delta!
There is no definitive prediction on which specific financial institution will fail next. However, recent analyses highlight systemic risks, particularly tied to commercial real estate (CRE) loan exposure, which could trigger future bank failures.
Key Risk Factors
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Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Exposure
A March 2025 report from Florida Atlantic University and research from Columbia Business School indicate that nearly 2,000 U.S. banks are at risk due to high CRE loan exposure:
1,788 banks have CRE exposure exceeding 300% of their equity.
Among the 10 largest U.S. banks, seven have CRE exposure over 50% of equity, including:
Truist (89%)
PNC (88%)
Wells Fargo (80%)
TD Bank (74%)
U.S. Bank (77%)
JPMorgan (56%)
Capital One (51%)
Flagstar Bank (formerly NYCB), with over $100B in assets, has CRE exposure exceeding 541% of equity.