Educated speculation:
MSTR, the massive bitcoin treasury company is headed towards S&P 500 inclusion. It qualified a while back, but because of its size and growth, the further out the decision to include gets, the tighter the needle will be to thread. At inclusion decision, most stocks get a small single digit percentage boost as passive strategies are required to allocate. Most of the allocation takes place before the actual inclusion date, particularly by smaller active investors. What makes MSTR different is a couple things. Most S&P 500 stocks ultimately find that about 20% of the float gets allocated to the passive strategies over time, but MSTR already has a narrow float with lots of strong hands. The share volume traded is pretty huge because of the volatility, but the amount of money that would come in would still launch it northward. More importantly, is that the inclusion would be one of the greatest last signals of Bitcoin taking over the world. It wouldn't just be another stock getting included, it would be a signal that Bitcoin is in 1st place. That would tighten the grip by hodlers and attract a lot of non-passive investors. You could see a 30-100% pop in the stock price just because of the inclusion but with long-term increases because of it's role in the economy. MSTR, its bond stocks, and other similar Bitcoin treasury companies are eating the premiums on real estate, stocks, bonds, and other asset categories that have all been used as savings vehicles because of the inability to earn interest in savings accounts. All that money flowed from the banks and into assets, propping them up, long ago, which is why everything is so fucking expensive. Most of that premium will eventually going to flow into Bitcoin-related vehicles, and S&P 500 inclusion would be the signal that the race has begun. So, next time you wonder WTF is happening in the market recently, i.e. gold, silver, etc., understand that people are getting their black powder ready for something BIG. I think MSTR is it. It's going to be the biggest company in the world one day, and ironically enough, the smartest tradfi minds are only beginning to get it. A few have moved into the new world already, and all indications are that a metric shit ton of randos, autists, and everyday folk are already way ahead of the game. Buy or don't. I'm not here to sell the idea. It's not to dismiss lots of other factors and variables. I'm just trying to give a deep explanation for the chaos: the world's financial system is changing at the foundational level, and that's causing all of the superficial turbulence that people are getting lost in trying to decipher.