Fuck Amazon, Fuck data centers, Fuck AI

Amazon (AMZN) is poised for a sharp decline—potentially 25-40% to $120-150 by end-2026—due to a toxic mix of over-the-top spending, competitive pressures, and economic risks.

Massive AI Capex Overload

Amazon plans $200 billion in 2026 capital expenditures, mostly for AI data centers and infrastructure—a 50%+ jump from last year and far above expectations. This dwarfs operating cash flow, likely pushing free cash flow deeply negative. Heavy depreciation will crush future earnings and margins, while investors flee the cash burn and "AI arms race" uncertainty.

AWS Losing Ground

AWS growth has slowed, and rivals like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud are gaining share faster in AI. The huge spending is a catch-up play, but if AI demand disappoints or infrastructure sits underused, profit growth stalls and losses from unprofitable bets (like certain AI projects) return.

Retail & Tariff Pain

E-commerce faces renewed margin pressure from potential tariffs on imports, softening consumer spending, and inflation. International retail remains a drag, and any slowdown could erase recent efficiency gains.

Overvaluation & No Margin of Error

Trading at a premium multiple with slowing growth, the stock has little room for misses. Recent earnings showed weak guidance, and the market has already punished it with a long losing streak and bear-market territory (down 20%+ from highs). Technicals and sentiment are deeply bearish.

In short: ballooning costs, competitive erosion, and macro headwinds create a perfect storm. The near-term pain from this spending spree will dominate, driving a significant drop as reality hits.