dChan - Q Origins Project Archive

likelihood of the Vatican being hit by a Meteorite today

On February 25, 2026, the likelihood of the Vatican (or any specific 0.44

area) being hit by a meteorite is effectively zero.

CBC

While Earth is hit by roughly 17 meteorites large enough to reach the ground every day, these impacts are randomly distributed, with more than 70% falling into the oceans.

Buseck Center for Meteorite Studies

Current Space Situational Awareness

Known Threats: As of today, there are 2,349 known potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), but none are on a collision course with Earth.

Near-Earth Objects (NEOs): Several asteroids are passing Earth today, including 2026 DC7 (approx. 1.1 million km away) and 2026 DD6 (approx. 1 million km away). These distances are far beyond any risk of impact.

Advanced Monitoring: The Vera C. Rubin Observatory officially launched its real-time discovery machine today, February 25, 2026, and is expected to detect millions of astronomical events nightly, significantly increasing our ability to spot previously undetected objects.

SpaceWeather.com

Historical Context & Scale

Specific Risk: The statistical chance of a "city-buster" asteroid hitting Earth in any given year is about 1 in 300,000. To hit a target as small as the Vatican, those odds drop by several more orders of magnitude.

Human Precedent: Only one person in recorded history, Ann Hodges in 1954, has been confirmed to be directly hit by a meteorite.

Vatican Comparison: For a sense of scale, astronomers sometimes use "Vatican City-sized" to describe asteroids (roughly 400-500 meters wide), such as 2001 CB21, which have passed Earth safely in the past.

StarDate Online

Would you like to see a list of the closest asteroid flybys scheduled for the remainder of 2026?