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Prolonged war in the middle East and a persistent fall in oil and gas supplies from the region could cause a “substantial spike” in inflation and a “sharp drop in output” in the Eurozone, ECB chief economist warned. FT
Brent hit $85 a barrel after news of a fire in Fujairah, a major UAE oil hub that lies outside the strait. QatarEnergy halted production of some downstream products and European natural gas surged again after the closure of the country’s LNG export plant yesterday. BBG
The Trump administration will unveil a plan on Tuesday to combat the rise in oil prices triggered by the U.S. military strikes against Iran, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday. Politico
Two leading Republican senators are reportedly asking the Trump admin to pass a USD 200bln tax cut without congressional approval; GOP seeks improving its economic approval rating ahead of the mid-term elections. Two senators incl. Ted Cruz and Tim Scott. Aims to reduce some of the taxes paid on capital gains: WaPo
Fresh market volatility triggered by the Middle East conflict has heightened the chance the Bank of Japan will hold off on raising rates in March, sources said, as policymakers need more time to gauge the impact on the economy. RTRS
US and Chinese trade negotiators are slated to meet in mid-March, according to people familiar with the matter, signaling a planned summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is pushing ahead despite American strikes against Iran. BBG
The Bank of Russia is suing the EU over the indefinite freeze on assets blocked following the invasion of Ukraine, arguing that it’s being deprived of legal protections. BBG
Fed chair-in-waiting Kevin Warsh’s path to rate cuts is narrowing amid elevated inflation, a stabilizing labor market and — now — surging oil. Traders pared rate-cut bets to price a 50% chance of a second quarter-point reduction this year. BBG
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted the U.S.-Israeli joint military operation in Iran will not lead to an “endless war” in a Fox News interview on Monday in which he lavishly praised U.S. President Donald Trump’s role in leading the airstrike campaign. Politico
Market ‘dispersion’ is hitting levels not seen in decades as investors sort AI winners from losers. While the S&P 500 has traded within a range of just 2.7% in 2026, the average company in the index has moved within a band that is about seven times as much. That ratio is the largest since at least 1994, signaling a market with unusually high divergence in returns between different companies. WSJ
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