Pakistan PM brands Iran-US talks ‘make or break’ for permanent truce

1 hour ago

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif ‌said ​late ⁠on ‌Fridaythat the US-Iran talks in ​Islamabad slated to ‌begin on Saturday were a make ‌or break to achieve a permanent ⁠ceasefire in the ‌weeks-long ​Middle East conflict.

Sharif thanked the leadership of Iran and the US for agreeing to a ceasefire and holding peace talks at his request,adding that his government would do its best to ensure the success of the peace process.

He also urged citizens to pray for the talks to succeed.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604102740

ANALYSIS

Why the Iran-US truce is more likely to buy time than peace

Ata Mohamed Tabriz.1/2

Iran analyst

As US and Iranian envoys prepare to meet in Pakistan this weekend,the truce between the two sides appears less a step toward peace than a fragile intermission in a war whose central disputes remain unresolved.

There is little clarity about the terms of the ceasefire. Neither Washington nor Tehran refers to it as a formal agreement, and the absence of guarantees, enforcement mechanisms or an effective mediator underscores how fragile it may be.

President Donald Trump has declared victory, Tehran has described the outcome as a “historic achievement,” and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has offered only partial support for the arrangement.

The complexity of the war, including the involvement of Arab states across the Persian Gulf and multiple proxy actors, makes a comprehensive settlement difficult for now.

The view from Washington

The United States entered the warwith multiple objectives: degrading Iran’s nuclear program, weakening the “Axis of Resistance,” and in some quarters even raising the possibility of regime change.At its core, however, thegoal was to alter the regional balance of powerby weakening Iran’s ability to threaten Israel and its neighbors.

According to American officials,roughly 13,000 targets were struck during the campaign, including missile infrastructure, naval facilities and parts of Iran’s air-defense network. Much of Iran’smilitary command structure was also disrupted following the killing of several senior figures.

From Washington’s perspective,these developments bought time by setting back Iran’s military capabilitiesand limiting its ability to rebuild quickly, even if sanctions were lifted.

However, key US objectives remain unresolved. Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium has not been secured, and parts of the missile program retain operational capacity.

At the same time,Washington may have underestimated the leverage Tehran could exertthrough the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s move to close the strait triggered a sharp global energy shock,prompting intense pressure on the Trump administration. These dynamics likely contributed to Washington’s decision to shift unresolved issues to negotiations.

In that sense, the United States neither fully won nor clearly lost. It altered the strategic equation but did not achieve all of its objectives on its own terms.

The view from Tehran

The internal condition of the Islamic Republic remains difficult to assess because of extensive internet restrictions. However,Tehran’s acceptance of the ceasefire suggests that the damage inflicted across military and infrastructure sectors was substantial.

The war alsoproduced a dramatic transformation in Iran’s command structurefollowing the killing of several senior figures, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604109193

>>24486412

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The collapse of much of Iran’s air-defense networkexposed the political center of power to continued vulnerability, making the possibility of further strikes a persistent concern.

At the same time, Iran’s leadership faced a different strategic risk:internal instability. Disruptions to electricity and fuel infrastructure, combined with the fragile legitimacy of thenew leadership, raised concerns aboutpotential unrest in a societyalready marked by repeated protest movements.

Hardline figures publicly criticized the ceasefire on Wednesday night, accusing the government of retreating under pressure. Yet the leadership appears to have concluded that atemporary pause was necessary to stabilize the domestic situation.

Tehran also believes it has gained leveragethrough the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports have emerged that Iran seeks transit fees of roughly $2 million per ship. If such a system were implemented across normal shipping volumes—a major assumption—it could theoretically generate tens of billions of dollars annually.

A fragile truce

Shortly after the announcement, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf—who now leads Iran’s negotiating team— said thatthree provisions of the ceasefire framework had already been violated: Israeli attacks on Lebanon, Iran’s enrichment rights, and the incursion of a hostile drone into Iranian airspace.

Complicating matters further is the structure of the mediation effort itself. Pakistan, as a non-Arab Muslim state with working relations with both Washington and Tehran, appears a logical intermediary.

But Islamabad’s influence appears limited.Netanyahu’s rejectionof Prime Minister ShehbazSharif’s remarkthat the ceasefire included Lebanonwas a telling moment.

The absence of GCC powers and Lebanon alsorepresents a structural weakness of the negotiations, as these actors remain deeply embedded in the conflict.

However,the decisive issue in the coming talks is likely to be the nuclear question. The central contradiction betweenWashington’s demand for zero enrichmentandTehran’s insistenceon maintaining enrichment rightsappears difficult to bridge. The fate of Iran’s existinguranium stockpile remains equally uncertain.

The Lebanese front presents another potential flashpoint. For Tehran, anyperceived abandonment of Hezbollahwould signal thecollapse of the Axis of Resistance. Recent rhetoric from Iranian officials about defending Lebanese Shiite communities indicates that this front retains the capacity to derail the ceasefire.

Theceasefire therefore represents neither the endof the conflict nor the beginning of a durable peace.It is more accurately a pause within an ongoing confrontation.

The war did not generate the decisive pressure necessary to impose a lasting settlement. Both sides now hope to translate battlefield outcomes into diplomatic leverage. But based on what is publicly known, the negotiationsappear unlikelyto deliver the decisive achievements either side seeks.==

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604109193

Bill Melugin

@BillMelugin_

DHS confirms that this Haitian illegal alien was caught and released at the border by the Biden administration in August 2022. He was later ordered deported by an immigration judge, but the Biden administration shielded him from deportation by granting him TPS, which expired in 2024. The victim he brutally bludgeoned to death with a hammer was an innocent store clerk and mother of two.

This horrific video speaks for itself. https://x.com/DHSgov/status//DHSgov/status/2042326493406138806

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Engaged but uncommitted: China watches Iran and US fight and talk

6 hours ago.1/2

Andrea Ghiselli

As US and Iranian envoys prepare to meet in Pakistan to explore a path out of the war,China is watching from further east—an influential but cautious actorthat helped move diplomacy forward but is unlikely to become the guarantor Tehran would like.

The truce that emerged after six weeks of war remains fragile, even as diplomatic signals from Washington, Tehran and Islamabadsuggest the meeting is likely to go ahead.

Amid the uncertainties and the mistrust, it was perhapsunsurprising that Iran’s ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli,publicly expressed hope that Beijing could act as a guarantor of the process. The suggestion followed reports that China maintained contact with both Washington and Tehran during the diplomatic push that helped produce the ceasefire.

Yet when asked directly about such a role, China’s foreign ministry avoided any commitment, saying only that Beijing hopes “all parties can properly resolve disputes through dialogue and negotiation” and will maintain communication with those involved.

This episode reflects a broader pattern in China’s response to the war: exerting influence while avoiding commitment.

Beijing is engaged, but only up to a point. It maintains economic ties with Iran, continues to purchase its oil, and provides forms of support that help sustain the Iranian economy under pressure.Yet none of this amounts to the kind of backing Tehran would need in an existential conflict. There are no security guarantees, no military involvement, and no willingness to absorb significant strategic risks.

China’s limited readiness to intervene reflects both its capabilities and its priorities. Its actions are ultimately directed toward ensuring thatthe conflict does not disrupt its broader strategic agenda at minimal cost. Contributing to de-escalation can serve that objective,but only insofar as it advances clearly defined interests.

When the conflict began on February 28, Beijing was relatively well positioned to absorb the initial shock with the strategic reserves it had built up throughout 2025, the increasing electrification of its economy, and its vast domestic coal resources.It also soon became clear that Tehran could withstand the initial decapitation strikes.

At the same time,China’s regional strategy has increasingly shifted toward the monarchiesacross the Persian Gulf, reinforcing its preference for a balanced and non-committal posture.

The conflict also presents certain strategic opportunities. As the United States diverts military resources and political attention to the Middle East, pressure on China in the Indo-Pacific decreases.The war also offers insights into US military capabilities and operational patterns.…

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604096570

>>24486513

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These advantages, however,depend on the conflict remaining limited. A prolonged war—such as the one that loomed when President Donald Trump warned that a “whole civilization will die”—poses significant risks.

China is poorly positioned to weather a global recession with ease. Exports remain essential for sustaining industrial output, growth and employment. A decline in external demand, combined with disruptions to key industrial and agricultural inputs, would therefore undermine a critical pillar of its economy.

Beijing wants stable relations with Washington,not least to buy time to strengthen its economy against future US pressure. In addition, the question of how to protect or evacuate the hundreds of thousands of Chinese nationals in the region would become increasingly urgent if the conflict escalated further.

It was under these conditions that China chose to act. On the one hand, it vetoed a Bahrain-sponsored resolution at the UN Security Council that—even in revised form—could have provided legal cover for further attacks against Iran. On the other, it helped create a diplomatic off-ramp to a US president in clear need of one.

China’s role in thecrisis thus highlights both the reach and the limits of its influence. Beijing has demonstrated an ability to shape outcomes at critical junctures,but it remains unwilling to assume the responsibilities of a security provider. Its actions are highly context-dependent: had Washington shown no interest in de-escalation, or had diplomatic openings not emerged,China’s ability to intervene would likely have been far more limited.

The Chinese leadership, in other words, is not seeking to resolve the conflict as much as to manage its consequences. It intervenes not to build a lasting order, but to prevent outcomes that would damage its broader strategic agenda.

As long as that calculation holds, Beijing will remain an influential—but ultimately cautious and constrained—actor in Middle Eastern security.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604096570

LIVE updated 37 minutes ago

Iranian negotiators in Islamabad for talks as Trump warns of renewed strikes

Summary

• Iran's negotiating team led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf arrived in Islamabad for key talks with the United States scheduled for Saturday, according to state media. Abbas Araghchi, Ali-Akbar Ahmadian and Abdolnasser Hemmati are other members of the delegation.

• President Donald Trump said on Friday thatUS warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” to continue airstrikes on Iran in case peace talks in Islamabad fail.

• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Friday that two preconditions — a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets — must be met before talks with the United States begin, ahead of negotiations in Islamabad he is expected to lead.

• Senior Iranian officials are locked in a dispute over the composition and authority of the delegation set to negotiate with the United States in Islamabad, sources with knowledge of the matter told Iran International.

• US Vice President JD Vance has departed for Pakistan, where he will lead an American delegation in high-stakes peace talks with Iran amid a fragile ceasefire on Saturday.

• Iranian senior lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi said on Friday that aparliamentary proposal would bar oil tankers linked to the United States and Israel from passing through the Strait of Hormuz forever.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202604067622

Why doesn’t the US leave the talks and start bombing again. They are annoying and will never agree to anything.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202604067622

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— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) April 10, 2026

https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202604067622