Let me walk you through the events of the war so far: [Iran]
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The United States and Israel tried regime change; it didn’t work. Or rather, they got regime change—Iran became an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps–led military dictatorship. That was not an improvement.
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The U.S. won an overwhelming military victory with air and naval power and scarcely a boot on the ground. But it destroyed less of Iran’s missile- and drone-launching capabilities than at first appeared.
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Then there was a hostage crisis. Iran took both the Gulfies and the Strait of Hormuz hostage. The result was a massive economic shock for the world that required a rapid resolution.
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The choice was between 1) military escalation (boots on the ground or strikes on Iranian infrastructure), and 2) a diplomatic deal. Trump chose 2.
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In Islamabad, the U.S proposed big economic concessions in return for some kind of change in the status of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, as well as the reopening of the strait. Contrary to the president’s social media feed, the Iranians did not accept.
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In any case, the devil of any deal will be in the details, not the Truth headline. (When the small print finally comes out, every former Obama and Biden official will be ready to tell The New York Times that it’s worse than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.)
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Meanwhile, the Iranians have survived regime change and discovered that closing the strait is just as powerful a lever in economic warfare as they had always hoped. It’s not, despite the Russian quip, an “economic nuke,” because unlike a nuclear weapon you can use it.
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Where we go from here is fairly predictable. I would be surprised if Trump now deploys ground forces. There will be more negotiation, so Islamabad, here we come. There may have to be more bombing, if the Iranians dust down the North Vietnamese playbook of stringing the U.S. negotiators along. And the final compromise will take longer to be agreed upon than Mr. Market currently believes. The consensus in prediction markets is this will be over by the end of May, but remember: It took Henry Kissinger more than four months to get the 1973–1974 oil embargo lifted.
https://x.com/nfergus/status/2046678480512057346