NY POST/5 days ago

==Iran has just weeks of oil storage left before it has to halt crude production: report=

Iran has only two to eight weeks left before it must curb oil production, risking long-term damage to its oil fields, experts said.

In the face of the US blockade on Iranian ports, Tehran is running out of storage space after it has been forced to divert its oil to onshore storage tanks, which only have the capacity for 122 million barrels, according to FGE NextantECA, an energy and chemicals advisory company.

With Iran’s current production of about 2 million barrels per day, the Islamic republic has only two months before it uses up all its storage space, the consultancy said.

“Once the tanks are filled, Iran would have to shut down its oil fields, which risks long-term damage to the fields,” Annika Ganzeveld, the Middle East Portfolio Manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, told The Post.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/iran-has-just-weeks-of-oil-storage-left-before-it-has-to-halt-crude-production-report/ar-AA213Npq

>>24526316

India Times / 1 hr ago

Iran oil tanks on cusp of being full? Why Tehran can't just turn it off

As tensions in the Persian Gulf escalate, a less visible but critical crisis is building beneath the surface of the global energy system.

With the US naval blockade restricting exports, Iran is rapidly running out of space to store its crude. Officials have warned that storage at key hubs like Kharg Island could fill within days, forcing the country to begin shutting in oil wells, a move with consequences far beyond geopolitics.

At first glance, stopping oil production might sound straightforward: just turn off the taps.

But in reality, shutting down oil production is a complex, delicate, and often irreversible process rooted in geology, pressure dynamics, and engineering constraints.

WHY CAN'T OIL JUST BE SWITCHED OFF?

Oil reservoirs are not underground lakes; they are porous rocks saturated with hydrocarbons, held in place by pressure from gas, water, and surrounding rocks. Production works by carefully managing this pressure so oil flows to the surface.

When wells are abruptly shut, this balance is disturbed. In mature fields like many of Iran's, shutting production can allow water from below to seep upward, a phenomenon known as water coning.

Once water invades the oil-bearing rock, some of the oil becomes permanently trapped and unrecoverable.

This is why shutdowns are not just temporary pauses. They can reduce a field's lifetime productivity and permanently destroy part of the resource.

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/iran-oil-tanks-on-cusp-of-being-full-why-tehran-can-t-just-turn-it-off/ar-AA21skIp

>>24526320

Time is on Trump's side. Iran won't want to "shut in" the oil wells, and risk/accept permanent damage to the well.

>>24526330

Good question. Hard to tell without more data on exactly what Obama caused to be done.

Environmental Concerns With Long-Term Shut-Ins

Wells that sit idle for years can develop integrity problems. The steel casing corrodes from contact with underground fluids. Cement that seals the space between the casing and surrounding rock can crack or separate. Surface equipment deteriorates from weather and neglect. Any of these failures can create pathways for methane and other chemicals to leak into groundwater or the atmosphere.

The U.S. has a 160-year history of oil and gas drilling, and that legacy includes a large number of wells that were shut in and never properly dealt with, eventually becoming orphaned. Research from the U.S. Geological Survey found that about 10% of orphaned and abandoned wells are responsible for the bulk of methane emissions, while the rest have undetectable levels. Wells connected to thermogenic petroleum gas reservoirs (deeper, hotter formations) have the highest measured emission rates, followed by coalbed methane sources. Conditions that enable leaks include decay of surface infrastructure, corrosion of the wellbore from underground fluids, separation of casing from cement, damage from seismic activity, and new fracture networks created when neighboring wells are hydraulically fractured.

The distinction matters because a properly monitored shut-in well, with intact equipment and regular inspections, poses far less risk than one that has been forgotten. The problems arise when shut-in wells slip into a regulatory gray zone, neither actively producing nor formally plugged and abandoned.

https://scienceinsights.org/what-is-a-shut-in-well-definition-and-key-risks/