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https://news.kalshi.com/p/spencer-pratt-odds-la-advance-mayoral-runoff-election
Spencer Pratt odds: 78% chance he advances to November's runoff.
Nithya Raman's polling surge briefly moved markets, but markets still favor a Bass-Pratt runoff.
By Danny Gallagher
May 31, 2026
Spencer Pratt remains a heavy favorite to advance to the second round of the Los Angeles mayoral race, with Kalshi markets giving him a 78% chance of making it past Tuesday's primary. Mayor Karen Bass continues to lead the market at 91%.
Meanwhile, City Councilwoman Nithya Raman has seen her odds climb to 31% following a recent polling surge, but traders still consider her unlikely to overtake either Bass or Pratt.
Not trading advice. For informational purposes only. See full disclaimer below.
Who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election?
Karen Bass
92%
Spencer Pratt
72%
Nithya Raman
30%
L.A. Mayoral Winner
However, traders are not as bullish on Pratt’s chances in the Los Angeles mayor election market. Bass leads at 62% to remain mayor, followed by Pratt at 27% and Raman at 12%.
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Karen Bass
62%
Spencer Pratt
27%
Nithya Raman
11%
What do the polls say?
The Los Angeles Times reported that the latest UC Berkeley-LA Times poll shows all three candidates polling closely with Bass at 26%, Raman at 25%, and Pratt at 22% among likely voters.
Raman and Pratt “each surged by eight percentage points” since the March survey of likely voters while “Bass stayed flat.”