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President Donald Trump formally notified lawmakers this weekend that the nation is once again at war with Iran, giving his administration another 60-day clock to use the military in the region without congressional approval. Politico
Brent topped $86 as Donald Trump said he would reinstate a blockade of Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz at 4 p.m. ET today. BBG
For decades, OPEC influenced the market by how much oil it produced. But China, the largest importer, is demonstrating its remarkable power over prices. Typically the world’s largest oil importer, China slashed purchases this spring, reducing demand so much that it prevented oil prices from soaring even higher earlier in the war. WSJ
Trump plans to back a Russia sanctions bill championed by late Senator Lindsey Graham, a person familiar said. His support would be a major win for Ukraine’s push to punish buyers of Moscow oil and gas. BBG
China's exports surged in June, buoyed by orders for chips to fuel the global AI boom and automobiles, deepening producers' reliance on overseas buyers as policymakers in the world's No. 2 economy continue to grapple with how to boost demand at home. The stronger-than-expected trade performance keeps China on track to post a surplus topping $1 trillion for a second straight year, with factories sustaining sales despite slowing growth in major economies and trade frictions with Washington. RTRS
Japanese policymakers on Tuesday flagged the possibility of changes to the asset allocation of the nation's giant state pension funds, though they offered no clues on the timing or scale of any shift. RTRS
Over the past year, the Trump administration has made deals to acquire equity stakes in more than two dozen firms, an unusual practice that extended the government’s influence over industries including semis, nuclear energy, minerals, and quantum computers and steel. AI execs are increasingly wondering if they will be next. NYT
Gov. Kathy Hochul is banning large data-center construction for up to a year, making New York the latest state to confront the rollout of sites powering the artificial-intelligence boom. The move responds to concerns over power costs, water supplies and community impacts as states consider limits on AI infrastructure’s effects on electricity grids and utility bills. WSJ
As Warsh prepares to face Congress, traders now see a US rate hike later this month as a coin toss. Money-market pricing suggests traders boosted their wagers for a July increase to almost 50% after yesterday’s strikes on Iran. BBG
US House will vote today on merging the SAVE America Act with a national security and State Department funding bill: Fox
Trump said they're looking into whether Cuba is storing Iranian drones, while he added that they will take care of it if Cuba has Iranian drones.
CPI Preview: Goldaman expects a 0.17% increase in June core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.76% (vs. +2.9% consensus). The bank expects a 0.11% decline in headline CPI (vs. -0.1% consensus), reflecting lower energy prices. The forecast is consistent with a 0.24% increase in core PCE in June, reflecting another large increase in its financial services component.
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