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The US launched more airstrikes on Iran, with Donald Trump pledging to intensify his bombardment until Tehran stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to open the waterway. BBG

As the U.S. war with Iran resumes, there is little sign that diplomacy can stop it. Efforts by Arab, Pakistani and other mediators to revive negotiations or restore a ceasefire have shown no public signs of progress, and the overall feeling in the Middle East and beyond is that the fighting will simply continue for now, according to two analysts and a person familiar with the situation. Politico

The cost of the war with Iran could be more than triple the most recent estimate of roughly $30 billion, according to three U.S. officials and three people familiar with the internal cost estimates. NBC

Nasdaq futures advanced as ASML raised its annual sales forecast for the second time this year, offering fresh evidence of AI-driven demand. SK Hynix continued its volatile run though, with the stock jumping in Seoul but ADRs falling premarket. BBG

Stripe and Advent offered to buy PayPal at a valuation of more than $53 billion, Reuters reported. Their $60.50-a-share bid is around 28% more than PayPal’s closing price yesterday. RTRS

BABA (Alibaba)’s Qwen AI will be integrated into Apple Intelligence in China. RTRS

China’s economy slowed more than expected last quarter to the weakest in more than three years, raising pressure on policymakers to speed up public spending to ensure their annual growth goal is met. China’s Q2 GDP came in a bit below expectations (+4.3% vs. the Street +4.5% and down from +5% in Q1), but retail sales were ahead of plan for June (+1% vs. the Street -0.1%), as was industrial production (+5.3% vs. the Street +4.6%) BBG

Trump administration may pursue further executive action addressing China-related concerns over open-source AI models, according to Semafor citing an unnamed senior White House official.

Beijing plans to fight attempts to monopolize advances in AI technology, state newspaper People’s Daily reported, following US attempts to curtail overseas access to cutting-edge models. BBG

The rush for cash by some of the world’s largest companies is putting the long bull market at risk. Investors have been cheering the raging bull market for years—three years and nine months, to be precise—with the S&P 500 having more than doubled during that period. Now companies are racing to take advantage, raising concern that the party could be coming to an end. WS

Fundamental L/S Gross leverage has declined in 5 of the last 6 weeks to 207.2% (28th percentile 1-year, 75th percentile 3-year). After reaching a 4-year high in early June, Fundamental L/S Net leverage has fallen -6.7 pts to 54.5% (22nd percentile 1-year, 39th percentile 3-year). Goldman PB

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