>NCSWIC
>Go be a faggot, elsewhere…or learn to bake.
>SKY EVENT or bust, baby
APOPHIS IS COMING–A FRIDAY THE 13TH COUNTDOWN
When astronomers discovered asteroid Apophis in 2004, they felt a jolt of fear. Early calculations gave it a 1-in-37 chance of hitting Earth on April 13, 2029–then the highest impact probability ever for a sizable asteroid. Naturally, it would arrive on Friday the 13th.
Years and thousands of observations later, we know that Apophis will miss, but by so little that watching it will feel like a close call. The 340-meter space rock will slice through Earth's shell of geosynchronous satellites so close that 2 billion people will be able to see it with their naked eyes.
Days may not be the best unit for this kind of countdown. Instead, let us count the Friday the 13ths. There are only four left–and the last one is the flyby itself.
Friday the 13th #1 (Nov. 13, 2026): Nobody can see Apophis. The asteroid has been hiding in the sun's glare since 2021. NASA's OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft is chasing the asteroid, and the European Space Agency is building a probe of its own, named Ramses.
Friday the 13th #2 (Aug. 13, 2027): Telescopes on Earth have just found Apophis again–a faint magnitude-21 speck. Ramses and Japan's DESTINY+ probe are in final testing.
Friday the 13th #3 (Oct. 13, 2028): The chase is on! Ramses and DESTINY+ launched together on a Japanese H3 rocket in April 2028. At least three spacecraft are now converging on Apophis.
Friday the 13th #4 (April 13, 2029): Apophis arrives. Cruising alongside the asteroid, Ramses will release two CubeSatsone will try to landwhile DESTINY+ may zip past for a close-up of its own. Earth's gravity will have a powerful effect on Apophis, bending its orbit and possibly causing quakes and landslides on the asteroid's surface. OSIRIS-APEX arrives two months later to survey the aftermath.
During the flyby, sky watchers on the nightside of Earth (Europe, Africa, and western Asia) will be able to look up and see Apophis shining like a star of magnitude 3.1. That's about as bright as stars in the Big Dipper. Moving 42 degrees per hour (the width of a full Moon every minute), Apophis will visibly drift against the background stars, a sight no human has ever seen without a telescope.
Stay tuned for a close call.
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=22&month=07&year=2026