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Texas, Iowa Senate races shift to toss-ups: Cook Political Report

08/20/26 12:47 PM ET

Campaign

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its ratings forboth the Texas and Iowa Senate races to toss-ups Thursday as Republicans grapple with a scandal-ridden candidate in the Lone Star State and a shifting political environment that could favor Democrats in Iowa.

Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report Senate andgovernors editor, wrote in an analysis that polling has shown Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico with still net-positive approval ratings, while surveys have shown Texas GOP candidate Ken Paxton with high disapproval ratings and “notably underperforming even a generic Republican in GOP polling.”

Taylor noted that in addition to Paxton’s negatives, there’s also an open question of which Republican groups will invest in the Texas Senate race as Senate Republicans spent a hefty amount of money to support Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

Additionally, the Cook Political Report editor added that having a libertarian on the ballot could help Talarico. Some Republicans may ultimately be unwilling to vote for the Texas attorney general but may also be repelled by the idea of casting a ballot for the Democratic state lawmaker, giving them the option to vote for a third candidate, which would inevitably help Democrats.

“It’s important to note that Talarico also has liabilities that Republicans can — and will — exploit, including his comments that ‘God is non-binary’ and that there are multiple genders,” Taylor wrote.

“He’ll soon be hit with millions in ads designed to paint him as outside of the mainstream,” she continued. “But the soft-spoken seminary student also has attributes that make him appealing to disaffected Republicans, whom his campaign is aggressively targeting.”

In the Iowa Senate race, Taylor explained that the nonpartisan election handicapper was not moving the race away from Republicans because of candidate quality, noting that Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) is a strong recruit and fundraiser.

But she noted that shifting political winds are offering state Rep. Josh Turek (D) a potential opening in a state that voted for President Trump by 13 points in 2024.

“Three of the four congressional seats are competitive, and the open governor’s race is moving away from them,” Taylor wrote.

“Rising fertilizer and diesel prices, in addition to tariffs, have uniquely harmed the state’s agriculture-dependent economy,” she added.

And like Texas, Taylor said the presence of a libertarian on the ballot could similarly help Turek, though she noted that Democrats still have an uphill climb ahead.

“Turek needs to raise more money if this is going to remain a top-tier opportunity for Democrats, but the early spending Republicans are already deploying to define Turek shows they’re concerned about their prospects in this now-battleground state,” she wrote.

Taylor made a caveat that the race ratings for both elections could change, as campaigns haven’t started seriously spending yet and that current polling could show more of a “sugar high” for Democrats in this midterm environment.

The Cook Political Report editor also noted that Republicans have a clear financial advantage over Democrats — turbocharged further by a recent Supreme Court ruling that has allowed parties and campaigns to coordinate, fundraise and spend unlimited amounts of money.

“Republicans have an unmistakable financial advantage that could revitalize their sagging candidates, but it may not be able to make up for the sizable voter enthusiasm gap that Democrats have on their side,” Taylor wrote.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6041660-cook-political-report-texas-iowa-senate-races/amp/

Anonymous ID: 7ec8a9 Aug. 20, 2026, 1:35 p.m. No.24956376 🗄️.is 🔗kun >>6379

UNBELIEVABLE: Turncoat Thune Tells GOP Base to Blame Democrats and NOT Senate Republicans for SAVE America Act Failure — Says Elect More Republicans and Make It a Campaign Issue

by Jim Hᴏft Aug. 20, 2026 2:20 pm284

RINO Senate Majority Leader John Thune is now telling frustrated Republican voters to redirect their anger away from Senate Republicans and toward Democrats after the GOP-controlled chamber failed to send President Trump’s SAVE America Act to his desk.

The South Dakota RINO argued that Republicans should stop fighting among themselves over the stalled election-integrity legislation and instead use the bill as a campaign issue ahead of the November midterms.

And Thune once again made clear that he has NO intention of eliminating the legislative filibuster to get Trump’s election legislation across the finish line.

The SAVE America Act would require proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote in federal elections and impose photo-identification requirements for voting. Republicans currently control the Senate, but the legislative filibuster generally requires 60 votes to advance major legislation.

President Trump has repeatedly demanded that Thune and Senate Republicans find a way to pass the legislation and has publicly called for terminating the filibuster if necessary.

Speaking to reporters, Thune said:

“First is, there are no Democrats who are gonna vote for this. All 47 voted against the SAVE Act five times. So, let’s make this an issue in the campaign. How about we go out and turn our fire on Democrats and make it about them opposing the SAVE Act?

He’s turned fire on you. So we’re not—that’s the point. So we’re not getting any Democrats.

The second thing is, we are not getting rid of the legislative filibuster. The votes aren’t there to do that. I’ve made it abundantly clear many, many times. And it seems to me, some days, that I’m the only one here who can count to 50 in this town.

But we don’t have the votes to get rid of the filibuster, and there aren’t—we aren’t flipping 10 Democrats to vote for the SAVE America Act.”

WATCH:

In an interview with Fox News, Thune criticized Democrats for being out of touch with the American people.

“The president made the argument, ‘Well, pass the SAVE America Act, it will motivate our base,’” Thune said. “Yeah, but I think the base can be plenty motivated by other issues, and particularly by the president getting out there on the campaign trail and telling them why it’s important that they elect Republicans to the Senate.”

Thune continued:

“Everybody has their own ideas about how best to communicate our message, but I think our message between now and November ought to be why the Democrats are completely out of step with the American people and why we need to elect more Republicans so we can do things like the SAVE America Act.”