transition profile (psychohistory)

phase position

what kind of transition behavior are we seeing now?

score where the system sits on: fragmentation → proliferation → hybridization → selection → stabilization.

coupling density

how quickly can a change propagate through the relevant population?

measure communication speed, network reach, institutional interdependence, supply-chain linkage,

platform concentration, financial coupling, and similar connectors.

threshold sensitivity

how little additional pressure is needed before behavior cascades?

look for indicators like declining trust, narrow margins between competing choices, rapid opinion shifts,

institutional fragility, synchronized market reactions, protest participation thresholds, migration pressure,

adoption curves, and sudden policy imitation.

for example, suppose today scored roughly:

phase: late proliferation / early hybridization

coupling: extremely high

threshold sensitivity: elevated