The West is watching the wrong Ukrainian collapse

Missiles and territorial losses dominate the headlines, while the deeper rupture between state and society goes largely unnoticed

Published 14 Sep, 2026 18:54 By Sergey Poletaev1/2

Last weekend, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and then Kiev. This was the first such visit in a long time, since all trilateral contacts between Russia, the US, and Ukraine were practically halted following the start of the conflict in Iran this February.

Following the visit, leaks regarding the talks emerged from Kiev; reportedly, the US envoys presented the Ukrainian side with a 28-point Russian peace plan that had been agreed upon a year earlier. Jared Kushner indirectly confirmed this on Saturday, stating thatthe territorial issue was the only point of the peace plan that remained unresolved.

Is it true that Ukraine accepted all the other fundamental demands of the Russian side•= – such as the points concerning the Russian language and the status of the Orthodox Church, the renunciation of military cooperation with NATO, the recognition of territorial changes, the reduction of the army, and so on? (Spoiler: no, it didn’t.)==

Is Ukraine really losing the war, as many recent statements and publications suggest?Spoiler: yes, but not in the way you’d think.

Let’s take a look at what this means.

Shuttle diplomacy

The peacetalks involving Steve Witkoff began in February-March 2025, shortly after a phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump that signaled a fundamental shift in US policy toward Russia and the Ukraine conflict.

Trump’s top priority was to avoid direct involvement, positioning America – as far as possible – at an equal distance from the parties.Of course, to truly achieve this, the conflict would have to be frozen; this would allow the US to restore relations with Russia, counterbalancing China.

Naturally, freezing the conflict (or, in Trump’s words, ending the war in one day)proved impossible; consequently, the US made the most out of the situation as the war dragged on: it shifted the entire burden onto Europe and stepped aside.This strategy allowed the US to maintain working contacts with Russia, reap maximum benefits from the ongoing fighting, and insulate itself from the risks of Ukraine’s potential defeat while still keeping the door open to capitalize on Ukraine’s hypothetical victory over Russia.

In short, Trump decided to sit on the sidelines and watch who would emerge victorious.

For Moscow, too, contacts with Washington are incredibly valuable. It proved impossible to decouple Russia-US relations from the Ukraine issue, and relations between the two countries have effectively remained frozen. Yet the fact that the US is disengaging from the Ukraine conflict – and, more broadly, from European affairs – ==deprives Europe of confidence in US backing and consequently strips it of strategic depth.•=

The flip side of this maneuver is that theUS has effectively relinquished its decisive say regarding Ukraine. Putin and Trump could reach any agreement whatsoever,but Ukraine is now entirely dependent on Europe. This means that it is Europe that will ultimately determine the final terms. As a Russian saying goes, “He who pays for the girl’s dinner gets to dance with her.”

Surely, Trump could exert pressure on all sides, but why bother?He is essentially satisfied with the current situation and needs nothing more from Moscow. So he has simply let things run their course.

Kiev is well aware of this, which is why Ukrainian officials play along with US envoys. Though direct opposition is out of the question – after all, they still need American missile defense systems – they can avoid any action and buy time. And that’s precisely what Kiev is doing.

The fact that Zelensky visited Canada last week but not the US clearly shows that Kiev no longer sees Washington as the primary center of decision-making. Consequently, the negotiation track involving Witkoff and Kushner is seen by the Ukrainian side as little more than a mandatory part of the show.

https://www.rt.com/russia/645729-west-is-watching-wrong-ukrainian-collapse/

>>25038085

2/3

Is Ukraine losing? Yes, but not in the way you might think

On September 8, British magazine The Spectator published an editorial titled ‘Ukraine is losing the war’. A week before,several prominent Ukrainian figures – including former Defense Minister Mikhail Fyodorov and the current head of Zelensky’s office, Kirill Budanov – had expressed similar sentiments.

At first glance, this may sound reasonable: the AFU’s deep-strike campaign against Russian infrastructure wasn’t successful, and the summer offensive on the southern front, which is crucial for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), has de facto failed.

Moreover, Ukraine was unprepared for retaliatory strikes targeting port facilities, logistics, energy infrastructure, and transport networks. This confirmed what experts had been saying for over a year:Ukraine’s air defense systems, which are entirely dependent on US supplies and severely depleted,could barely cope with the previous intensity of air raids; now they can shoot down one ballistic missile out of a dozen, at best. This has made it possible for the Russian Army to launch massive attacks on the Ukrainian rear.

Of course, massive raids by Ukrainian drones and, occasionally, cruise missiles also inflict damage on the Russian rear. This summer was marked by a gasoline shortage and long lines at gas stations.Dozens of warehouses in the European part of Russia are in flames, and other targets are under attack as well.

However, the scale of these attacks is incomparable: by various estimates, the AFU managed to disable up to 3% of Russia’s warehouse storage capacity, whereas Russia has disabled between 30% and 60% of Ukraine’s capacity. Ukrainian experts admit that the strikes on Odessa port have had a far greater impact on Ukraine’s fuel logistics than Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries.

For instance,the price of diesel fuel in Ukraine has topped 100 hryvnias, which is nearly three times the cost in Russia. For the first time since the start of the conflict, fuel rationing is being introduced for the AFU (no such measures have ever been implemented for the Russian Armed Forces).

=Russian strikes have effectively halted Ukrainian grain exports by sea, depriving the national budget of a key revenue stream. Retail businesses are closing en masse, undermining what is arguably the economy’s last remaining civilian sector.

This looks like an obvious reason why Ukraine is losing the war.So does this mean that all those hysterical reports and articles are actually true?

Not quite. I would venture to say that all the above-mentioned factors are merely temporary difficulties to which Ukraine can adapt, and which have little impact on the situation at the front. It’s true that there is a gaping hole worth tens of billions of dollars in the Ukrainian budget; likewise, it’s true that the civilian population will face a harsh winter; and yes, what remains of the energy and industrial sectors is under constant attack.

But all this means thatthe additional financial burden will fall on Europe’s shoulders, while the civilian sector and the state’s capacity to fulfill social obligations will continue to deteriorate; the people will be left to their fate.

All this will affect not only ordinary citizens but entrepreneurs as well. Ukrainian businesses, which largely supported the Kiev regime and the war simply because there were no other options (given that their future was directly tied to that of the central government), are also being left to fend for themselves.

The central tension in Ukrainian society right now is the smoldering civil conflict between Territorial Centers of Recruitment (TCRs) and the men who are being conscripted by force. The destruction of the civilian economy is likely to spawn similar scenarios: bankrupt entrepreneurs, an impoverished middle class, and the unemployed will all see that the Ukrainian state is doing them more harm than good. As a result, the state itself, and not just state-controlled TCRs, will become the enemy.

https://www.rt.com/russia/645729-west-is-watching-wrong-ukrainian-collapse/

>>25038097

3/3

One might argue that as opportunities and funds in the civilian sector decline, the military sector becomes more attractive. However, there areno new opportunities in military production and logistics (after all, Ukraine has no money), and fewer people are willing to die on the front lines.

All of this will lead toan even greater disconnect between the Ukrainian state and society. And a state severed from society is essentially a military organization. History offers us many such examples, the most recent being ISIS.

A military organization that lacks the support of civil society cannot hold the front line, especially one stretching 1,500 kilometers. There are no historical precedents for this.

A collapse of the front would mean the end of Ukraine in its current form. Kiev understands this perfectly well, which is why it undertakes superhuman efforts to hold the line – even at the cost of a smoldering civil war on the home front.

***

The detachment of the Ukrainian state from society did not begin yesterday. It started the moment the Ukrainian authorities placed the interests of their Western masters above those of their country.

As winter approaches, Ukraine again finds itself at a crossroads. And it appears to be once again choosing the path of war, a path that it’s being desperately pushed onto by Europe’s anti-Russia coalition.

That is precisely why Witkoff and Kushner left Kiev empty-handed, and why the war will continue– first until the Kiev regime is completely severed from Ukraine, and then until that regime is utterly destroyed.

If you need an example, just look at ISIS.

(

https://www.rt.com/russia/645729-west-is-watching-wrong-ukrainian-collapse/

Very detailed explanation.anons do you believe Zelensky will dissappear soon?

Kiev strikes emergency fuel convoy to Europe’s biggest nuclear plant – Rosatom

Two guards were killed in attacks on diesel tankers supplying the Zaporozhye facility, according to the Russian nuclear corporation

Published 13 Sep, 2026 07:02 |

Ukraine has carried out a series of strikes on tankers delivering emergency diesel fuel to the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), killing two Russian servicemen and wounding multiple others, Rosatom CEO Aleksey Likhachev has said.

The attacks took place on Friday in the immediate vicinity of the plant’s perimeter and targeted fuel trucks transporting diesel needed for the facility’s emergency power systems, Likhachev said in a statement on Sunday.

Two Russian servicemen were killed and “a large number” were wounded, some seriously, according to the Rosatom chief. He said the troops had been involved insecuring a “strictly civilian mission” to maintain fuel deliveries to the nuclear facility.

Likhachev accusedKiev of knowinglytargeting the tankers despite being aware of their cargo and its importance to nuclear safety.

The incident comes just days after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned that the ZNPP’s diesel reserves had been critically depleted during nearly three weeks without external electricity. The plant lost its sole remaining power connection on August 20 and had to rely entirely on emergency generators until a temporary IAEA-brokered ceasefire allowed repairs to be carried out and the line to be reconnected on September 7.

Even after external electricity was restored, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossistressed that replenishing diesel remained essential because the plant could again lose grid powerdue to unspecified “military activity” in the area.

During the latest blackout, the plant had reduced the number of operating generators from four to two to conserve diesel and began running some cooling pumps intermittently. The generators provide electricity for essential safety systems, including pumps cooling all six reactors and their spent fuel pools.

Likhachev accusedKiev of deliberately increasing the risk of a nuclear emergency at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.

“The Kiev regime has openly embarked on a path of provoking a nuclear incident at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, with unpredictable consequences,” he said, arguing that any such event could affect areas far beyond the immediate vicinity of the facility.

The Rosatom chief called on the IAEA to “strongly condemn” the attack and explicitly identify those responsible.He also urged Kiev’s Western backers to distance themselves from what he described as the Ukrainian government’s “most horrific crimes.”

The IAEA has repeatedly warned about military activity around the ZNPP and nearby Energodar. In its latest update before Likhachev’s statement, the agency reported hearing explosions, drones and sustained gunfire in the area and said theplant’s power situation remained “increasingly fragile.”

https://www.rt.com/russia/645619-zaporozhye-emergency-fuel-convoy/

“One Ping Only, Vasily”

September 13, 2026 | Sundance1/3(fascinating analysis!)

♦President Trump’s foreign policy approach brought North and South Korea together away from the table of conflict. ♦President Trump’s foreign policy approach brought Serbia and Kosovo together away from the table of conflict. ♦President Trump’s foreign policy rallied the Gulf Cooperation Council to stop Qatar’s support for Islamic extremists via the Muslim Brotherhood. ♦President Trump’s foreign policy brought Turkey and the Kurdish forces together away from war and conflict. ♦President Trump’s foreign policy created a ceasefire to stop the bloodshed in Syria. President Trump mediated a cessation of hostilities between India & Pakistan in the Kashmir region. ♦President Trump’s foreign policy brought Israel and the UAE together… and then Bahrain… and then Sudan in the Abraham Accords.

President Trump executes a clear foreign policy, a unique doctrine of sorts, where national security is achieved by leveraging U.S. economic power. It has been a fundamental shift in approaching both allies and adversaries; summarized within the oft repeated phrase: “economic security is national security.”

The Trump Doctrine of using economics to achieve national security objectives is a paradigm shift in American politics. Modern U.S. history provides no easy reference strategy, because until now no American president has ever leveraged this approach.

U.S. B-2 bombers struck Iran on June 22, 2025, as part of Operation Midnight Hammer, targeting key nuclear facilities.

Immediately following the August 2025, Alaska summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Trump, Russia restarted Arctic-2 LNG terminals and began increasing natural gas (LNG) production for storage on ‘floating platforms.’

President Trump met with President Putin on August 15, 2025, and the curious increase in Russian production began on August 18, 2025.

It absolutely did not make sense that Russia would start producing even more LNG considering the previously imposed western sanctions against them, and the fact that Russia was already overproducing LNG. As noted by analysts at the time. Russia had no market for this LNG, yet Russia began increasing LNG supply anyway. For six months Vladimir Putin extracted and stored LNG.

Two months later, on October 25, 2025, President Trump did something odd. President Trump had attended the ASEAN summit in Asia before; however, this time instead of flying West over the Pacific, he flew east to Malaysia. This put a refueling stop in Qatar, which everyone just ignored as a routine part of the travel plan.

However, upon arrival in Qatar, the Amir of Qatar came to the airport to pay a courtesy visit to President Trump. They spoke aboard Airforce One during the refueling stop.

Four months later, on February 28, 2026, Operation Epic Fury against Iran began.

Within 36 hours Qatar announced they were shutting down all LNG production, following retaliatory strikes carried out by Iran. Overnight the price of LNG skyrocketed, and immediate concerns were raised by ASEAN countries who are heavily reliant on LNG production from the Gulf.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/09/13/one-ping-only-vasily/#more-286949

>>25038421

2/3

Southeast Asia doesn’t use LNG for heating (don’t need it), that specific cheap energy resource powers everything else in their economy, cooking, transportation, electricity etc.

Six months earlier Russia began storing LNG and oil on floating platforms with no customers. A few days after Qatar made their March force majeure shutdown announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued an interim license for Russia to sell oil and gas that was loaded onto “floating platforms and vessels” before March 12 and was valid through midnight Washington time on April 11. [Treasury Notice Here – OFAC Technical Details Here]

Either Russian President Putin was the luckiest guy in the world, or Russia knew something. In August 2025 what Russia did following the Alaska summit did not make sense. In March 2026 what they were doing for the past six months suddenly looked like something more than simply fortuitous.

♦ On August 25, 2026, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unexpected trip to Moscow. Western media reported that CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow to warn his Russian counterpart Sergey Naryshkin, head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), about striking Baltic NATO states. Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed this western framing.

Three days after CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit, Russia blew up a massive ammunition depot in Kiev that Zelenskyy claimed he didn’t know about. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the placement of a weapons depot next to civilians was “terrible negligence.” The first impact, he said, hit a depot storing shells, mines, other munitions, and drones that “definitely shouldn’t have been there.”

On September 5, 2026, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveled to Moscow to discuss ceasefire negotiations. On September 8, President Trump and President Putin held a telephone call to discuss the visit. President Putin’s senior aide Yury Ushakov documented the phone call in a Kremlin readout.

Part of the readout: “[Russia’s] vision of the overall progress on the battlefield and achieving the goals and objectives of the special military operation. Speaking of which, actual tangible actions that the Americans could take to expedite the cessation of the hostilities were outlined.”

President Putin outlined tangible actions “Americans could take”?

Russian President Putin doesn’t believe that President Trump or any other U.S. President actually controls the mechanisms of government. This opinion is underlined and emphasized when it comes to the U.S. Intelligence Community and the CIA.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/09/13/one-ping-only-vasily/#more-286949

>>25038424

3/3

Putin has often stated that no U.S. President controls the CIA, and Putin has said while he never views the U.S. President or the people of America as his enemy, the CIA are the problem. Putin views the CIA as the real control mechanism within the U.S. government. America is not Russia’s enemy, the CIA is. That’s Putin’s perspective in a nutshell.

Obviously, President Trump would counter that outlook by saying no, he is in control of the USIC and all the downstream institutions. Unfortunately, President Putin would be incredulous to the possibility; he has a lifetime of watching things unfold like “Russiagate.”

So, here’s my point:

Did Trump just tell Ratcliffe to send “one ping only“?

Basically, using the timing of 9/11 anniversary to prove to Putin he does actually have control over the CIA.

The ping:

The CIA 9/11 PDBs

RELATED: KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to halt strikes on Russian diesel, saying the attacks are causing a fuel shortage.

Trump was asked by a reporter if he had spoken with Zelenskyy following his recent conversation with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Trump responded by calling on Zelenskyy to halt strikes against Russia.

“Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia,” Trump told reporters on the sidelines of the Irish Open, which is being played at his Doonbeg golf club. “Let him go after targets but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage of diesel fuel.” (more)

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/09/13/one-ping-only-vasily/#more-286949

NBC Targets and Doxxes Lindsay Clancy Juror Holdout – Visits Home, Searches, Investigates Family and Worse

September 12, 2026 | Sundance |

NBC has taken things far beyond what is moral, ethical or even legal, and they should pay a heavy price.

Anyone thinking about sitting out the 2026 midterm election should immediately think about the ramifications and consequences of letting this type of toxic leftism run amok. This is horrid, toxic and creepy in the worst and most direct way imaginable.

MATT WALSH really does sum it up well when he says, “A man was conscripted into jury duty by the government. He performed his civic duty and followed his conscience, refusing to acquit a woman who confessed to systematically executing her three children. The defense attorney immediately launched a public smear campaign against the juror. Soon several other jurors joined the campaign. Then the media. Even the defense attorney’s wife has joined.

Now they’re doxxing the man, digging into his past, contacting his family, showing up at his house. All of this both to punish him for refusing to go with their program, and to pollute any future jury pool by making it clear that anyone who votes to convict Clancy will have their life destroyed.

It’s truly one of the most outrageously evil things we’ve ever seen from the Left, and that’s saying something. A direct assault on the integrity of our justice system. They are burning down every boundary and standard in their path. And doing it all for the sake of a child murdering psychopath. Unfathomable.”

NBC News has published specific details of the holdout juror who refused to go along with the other eleven jurors in the Lindsay Clancy case. The media is now hunting him down, investigating him and publishing private details of his life as they use Alinsky methods to support a subset of toxic leftist culture.

BOSTON – The NBC10 Boston Investigators are uncovering new details about the lone holdout juror from the Lindsay Clancy murder trial.

Court documents and interviews with family members reveal a history of domestic violence allegations. We discovered a pending eviction case tied to months of not paying rent. The NBC10 Boston Investigators also found an active restraining order against him, while he was listening to evidence in the case.

[…] We are not identifying him at this time because he has chosen not to speak publicly and the jury list is currently impounded. However, we wanted to share the details that experts say should have raised red flags about how he filled out his juror questionnaire. (read more)

Our nation is under an evil culturally Marxist and politically Communist attack.

Every institutional element that binds the fabric of our nation is under assault.

This is the “fundamental change” legacy triggered by the Chicago communist machine in 2006 being fully manifest.

I find it difficult to put the damage of this targeted character assignation into words.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/09/12/nbc-targets-and-doxxes-lindsay-clancey-juror-holdout-visits-home-searches-investigates-family-and-worse/#more-286929