HERE WE GO AGAIN: 93% of Senate Polls in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio Overstate Democrat Voters — Average Miss of 6.2 Points Just 33 Days Before Election!. 1/2
By Jim Hᴏft Oct. 5, 2026
The polling industry is running the same play it has run for three straight cycles, and a new breakdown of the historical record shows exactly how often that play has been wrong.
Echelon Insights pollster Patrick Ruffini, writing at The Intersection, released an infographic this week measuring Democratic two-party Senate polling averages in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio across 2018–2024, taken at the same point on the calendar we are sitting on now, 33 days before Election Day. The dotted line on his chart is today’s point in the 2026 cycle.
The result is brutal for the people still treating late-September surveys as prophecy.
93 percent of the polls overstated the Democrat. The average miss at 33 days out was D+6.2 points. In midterm years alone, the average miss was D+6.6 points.
Ruffini pulled the numbers from the FiveThirtyEight archive, stripped partisan house effects, and lined them up against certified results from the MIT Election Lab. He posted the chart on October 1.
The races the media wrote off tell the story:
Iowa, 2020 — Greenfield (D) vs. Ernst (R): Polls at 33 days had Democrat Theresa Greenfield up 2.4. Sen. Joni Ernst won by 6.8.
Iowa, 2022 — Franken (D) vs. Grassley (R): Already R+7.7 at 33 days. Sen. Chuck Grassley finished R+12.2.
Michigan, 2018 — Stabenow (D) vs. James (R): Polls had Debbie Stabenow up 14.0. She won by 6.6.
Michigan, 2020 — Peters (D) vs. James (R): D+6.5 in the polls. Gary Peters won by 1.7.
Michigan, 2024 — Slotkin (D) vs. Rogers (R): D+5.5 at 33 days. Elissa Slotkin scraped by Mike Rogers by 0.3.
Ohio, 2018 — Brown (D) vs. Renacci (R): Sherrod Brown was up 16.3 in the polls. He won by 6.8.
Ohio, 2022 — Ryan (D) vs. Vance (R): Tim Ryan was essentially tied to slightly behind. JD Vance won by 6.1.
Ohio, 2024 — Brown (D) vs. Moreno (R): Polls had Brown up 0.4. Bernie Moreno beat him by 3.8.
That is the pattern. Democrats look alive, sometimes comfortably ahead, five weeks out in the industrial Midwest.
Then the electorate shows up and the Republican wins, or the Democrat’s “landslide” collapses into a squeaker. Ernst was supposed to be in trouble. Moreno was supposed to lose to a three-term incumbent. Both are in the Senate.
Ruffini had already flagged the broader problem in August. Across 3,312 Senate polls from 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024, the average error was D+3.7, 73 percent of individual polls overstated the Democrat, and the miss peaked around D+5.9 in late July before narrowing toward Election Day.
His Substack on that review is here. The October 1 chart, focused on the three states that keep deciding these cycles, is here.
NRSC National Press Secretary Bernadette Breslin did not bother with the soft version.
“Democrats should think twice before relying too heavily on the same rosy polling that has historically written Republicans off cycle after cycle, only to be proven wrong come Election Day,” Breslin said, amplifying the findings.
Michigan already supplied a fresh exhibit, and it was not even a general election. In the August 4 Democratic Senate primary, polls had socialist Abdul El-Sayed, the Bernie Sanders-backed former Wayne County health director, leading Rep. Haley Stevens by double digits.
The Washington Post reported the industry overestimated his lead by about 12 points. He won by roughly a point.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/10/here-we-go-again-93-senate-polls-iowa/