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@realErikDPrince

Off Leash update 12 October 2026

COMING UP THIS WEEK

•IMF and World Bank winter meetings begin today in un-wintery Bangkok, and the IMF will publish its semi-annual World Economic Outlook tomorrow.

•African Energy Week runs from Wednesday through Friday in Cape Town.

•The European Council – comprising the heads of state / government of all 27 European Union member countries – will meet in Brussels Thursday and Friday.

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES

•Aluminum: $3,049/ton

•Antimony (global avg.): $35,563/ton

•Bitcoin: $83,820

•Cobalt: $39,245/ton

•Copper: $14,540/ton

•Ethereum: $2,554

•Gold: $4,188/toz

•Lead: $1,888/ton

•Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.16/MMbtu

•WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $90.45/barrel

•Zinc: $3,806/ton

UKRAINE

•Pres. Trump announced that his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts had agreed to an energy ceasefire “effective immediately.”

•That seemed to be news to Presidents Zelensky and Putin, though Zelensky said Ukraine would agree to such a deal if Russia did. Ukraine claims that Russia continued to target its energy infrastructure after Trump’s announcement, which would appear to signal a rejection of the proposed truce.

•Russia did, however, agree to a more controversial deal Trump proposed. This one offers Russia temporary and limited sanctions relief so it can sell up to 4.8 million tons of diesel to the U.S. and other foreign buyers in the coming months.

•Zelensky called the diesel deal “an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged,” and several of his European backers echoed his criticism.

CHINA

•One of the items on the agenda when European Union (EU) heads of state meet this week will be the bloc’s trade deficit with China, which is currently around €1 billion ($1.1 billion) per day. [Though that headline figure obscures a more nuanced reality that Europe enjoys a vast trade surplus to China in some sectors, like services.]

•France and Germany are leading the drive for tougher measures to close that gap. China has preemptively threatened to retaliate against any new trade restrictions the EU imposes – though it did agree to a deal to sharply reduce its hybrid and plug-in hybrid exports to the EU to deescalate trade tensions.

ETHIOPIA

•In a letter to the UN, Ethiopia said it was facing an “all-out invasion” by Eritrean troops and had been forced to defend against their incursion about 40 miles (65 km) into Tigray.

•Eritrea claims its archrival to the south is looking for an excuse to justify an invasion of its own to capture the Eritrean Red Sea port of Assab.

IRAN AND YEMEN

•The Pentagon used a Friday evening update to revise the number of U.S. casualties from the Iran war up sharply, from 18 killed and 98 wounded as of the previous update in August to 21 killed and 865 wounded as of October 9.

•Given that there was little active fighting in that period, observers are guessing the increase came from broadening the count to include U.S. troops killed or wounded in supporting roles.

•That might be right - but it might be wrong. It’s hard to know for sure, because the Pentagon offered no justification for the nearly ninefold increase in its total casualty tally and ignored media and (partisan) congressional inquiries for an explanation and greater transparency.

•Meanwhile, Iran’s Houthi proxies continued to target Riyadh in revenge for Saudi’s support for the government forces the Houthis are fighting in Yemen. A Houthi strike on the Saudi capital killed 12 on Saturday – the deadliest attack on a Gulf Arab country this year – and another one killed two more yesterday.

•Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, offered to facilitate dialogue between Saudi and the Houthis, but the Saudis will be reluctant to agree to such a partial mediator.

11:43 AM · Oct 12, 2026

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