ATTN POLLFAGS AND CONCERN FAGS
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
I'm not a polling expert, but my impression is that GENERIC ballot is bullshit. If someone can correct me, but who cares what New York or California think? Wouldn't that ALWAYS skew the generic ballot up for D?
So I pulled up some State by State polls and I get a much better picture.
The House is currently pretty comfy for Republicans. RCP says there's 9 states that are wildcards, and 5 of 9 of those are D's. I think there's no way Cruz is leaving, TN will stay R and AZ will probably stay R as well (except they voted consistently for that Democrat NoName so who knows). If I'm to believe this poll, i think R's are safe in the Senate (BUT THATS NO EXCUSE, GO VOTE, WE MUST CRUSH THEM)
The House is a bit more chaotic. It looks at first glance that the D's have this swept, 201 to 191, but holy shit there's 43 seats in play and astoundingly 41 of those are R's! I don't quite know what to think about that. How could it be so many? On the one hand, I could assume that they were R before and will probably stay R–but I don't exactly know the criteria that RCP uses to determine Toss Ups. So lets say half of those flip to D, then the D's get 22 seats, and the R's get 21, for an end total of 233 D vs 212 R. NOT GOOD. But this implies HALF of them will flip, my gut says that's pretty generous to the D's. Let's give them 25%, so they'll get -10 and R's +10 more, so now we're at 223D vs 222R, which is almost a tie.
So, the House kinda freaks me out, but the Senate looks in good shape at the moment.
If some big scandals DO come out, then all bets are off.
Nevermind the obvious fact that they always oversample Democrats in these polls and that's why almost every poll was wrong in 2016.