Here's a list of the latest poll results: https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#

The Senate races matter, but let's not forget the House. Governors would come third, probably.

Also, we should continuously update this list by checking above link every day. I've only included races for the Senate, House, and Governor races (I believe). The other questions are useless and probably biased. One last thing: take these results with a grain of salt: most of them will boost Democrat results right up until the election, then give a more accurate outlook at the end so they can say they were "closest" to the result. The only ones I pay attention to are IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen. On the day of the election, I think LA Times/USC actually had Trump ahead, and were catching a lot of shit for it. Here's an article on them: https://dailycaller.com/2016/11/19/these-pollsters-got-the-election-right-according-to-rcp/

8/23/18

Pennsylvania Senate - Barletta vs. Casey NBC News/Marist Casey 53, Barletta 38 Casey +15

Virginia Senate - Stewart vs. Kaine Roanoke College* Kaine 51, Stewart 34 Kaine +17

Connecticut Senate - Corey vs. Murphy Quinnipiac Murphy 59, Corey 31 Murphy +28

Connecticut Governor - Stefanowski vs. Lamont Quinnipiac Lamont 53, Stefanowski 37 Lamont +16

Pennsylvania Governor - Wagner vs. Wolf NBC News/Marist Wolf 54, Wagner 40 Wolf +14

8/22/18

Wisconsin Senate - Vukmir vs. Baldwin Marquette Baldwin 49, Vukmir 47 Baldwin +2

Florida Senate - Scott vs. Nelson Florida Atlantic University Scott 45, Nelson 39 Scott +6

New Jersey Senate - Hugin vs. Menendez Quinnipiac Menendez 43, Hugin 37 Menendez +6

Minnesota Senate Special Election - Housley vs. Smith Suffolk* Smith 44, Housley 37 Smith +7

Minnesota Senate - Newberger vs. Klobuchar Suffolk* Klobuchar 54, Newberger 34 Klobuchar +20

Texas Senate - Cruz vs. O'Rourke NBC News/Marist Cruz 49, O'Rourke 45 Cruz +4

Minnesota Governor - Johnson vs. Walz Suffolk* Walz 46, Johnson 41 Walz +5

Florida Governor - Republican Primary Florida Atlantic University DeSantis 32, Putnam 31, Nathan 4, White 2, Baldauf 3, Devine 2 DeSantis +1

Florida Governor - Democratic Primary Florida Atlantic University Graham 29, Levine 17, Greene 11, Gillum 11, King 10 Graham +12

Wisconsin Governor - Walker vs. Evers Marquette* Evers 46, Walker 46 Tie

Texas Governor - Abbott vs. Valdez NBC News/Marist Abbott 56, Valdez 37 Abbott +19

Illinois Governor - Rauner vs. Pritzker NBC News/Marist* Pritzker 46, Rauner 30 Pritzker +16

8/21/18

Michigan Senate - James vs. Stabenow Gravis Stabenow 51, James 35 Stabenow +16

Michigan Governor - Schuette vs. Whitmer Gravis Whitmer 52, Schuette 37 Whitmer +15

8/20/18

New Mexico Senate - Rich vs. Heinrich vs. Johnson Emerson Heinrich 39, Johnson 21, Rich 11 Heinrich +18

New Mexico Governor - Pearce vs. Grisham Emerson Grisham 42, Pearce 40 Grisham +2

New Hampshire Governor - Sununu vs. Kelly UNH Sununu 48, Kelly 32 Sununu +16

New Hampshire Governor - Sununu vs. Marchand UNH Sununu 48, Marchand 33 Sununu +15

8/17/18

Wisconsin Governor - Walker vs. Evers PPP (D) Evers 49, Walker 44 Evers +5

8/15/18

Indiana Senate - Braun vs. Donnelly Trafalgar Group (R) Donnelly 51, Braun 39 Donnelly +12

8/14/18

Tennessee Senate - Blackburn vs. Bredesen Gravis Bredesen 44, Blackburn 48 Blackburn +4

Tennessee Governor - Lee vs. Dean Gravis Lee 51, Dean 40 Lee +11

Maryland Governor - Hogan vs. Jealous Gonzales Research Hogan 52, Jealous 36 Hogan +16

New Jersey 3rd District - MacArthur vs. Kim Monmouth Kim 45, MacArthur 44 Kim +1

8/13/18

Minnesota Senate - Newberger vs. Klobuchar Emerson Klobuchar 50, Newberger 26 Klobuchar +24

Missouri Senate - Hawley vs. McCaskill Missouri Scout* Hawley 47, McCaskill 47 Tie

8/9/18

Virginia Senate - Stewart vs. Kaine VCU* Kaine 49, Stewart 26 Kaine +23

8/8/18

Maine Senate - Brakey vs. King Suffolk* King 52, Brakey 25 King +27

Maine Governor - Moody vs. Mills Suffolk* Moody 39, Mills 39 Tie

8/6/18

Rhode Island Governor - Fung vs. Raimondo WPRI/Roger Williams* Raimondo 39, Fung 37 Raimondo +2

>>2940749

9/7/18

California 48th District - Rohrabacher vs. Rouda NY Times/Siena Rouda 45, Rohrabacher 45 Tie

Georgia Governor - Kemp vs. Abrams Atlanta Journal-Constitution Abrams 45, Kemp 45 Tie

Illinois 12th District - Bost vs. Kelly NY Times/Siena Bost 44, Kelly 43 Bost +1

Illinois 6th District - Roskam vs. Casten NY Times/Siena Roskam 45, Casten 44 Roskam +1

Utah 4th District - Love vs. McAdams UtahPolicy/Dan Jones Love 49, McAdams 46 Love +3

9/6/18

Tennessee Governor - Lee vs. Dean NBC News/Marist Lee 53, Dean 40 Lee +13

Tennessee Senate - Blackburn vs. Bredesen NBC News/Marist Bredesen 48, Blackburn 46 Bredesen +2

9/5/18

Utah Senate - Romney vs. Wilson UtahPolicy/Dan Jones* Romney 55, Wilson 29 Romney +26

Indiana Senate - Braun vs. Donnelly NBC News/Marist Donnelly 49, Braun 43 Donnelly +6

Florida Senate - Scott vs. Nelson Quinnipiac Scott 49, Nelson 49 Tie

9/4/18

Florida Governor - DeSantis vs. Gillum Gravis Gillum 47, DeSantis 45 Gillum +2

Florida Governor - DeSantis vs. Gillum Quinnipiac Gillum 50, DeSantis 47 Gillum +3

Florida Senate - Scott vs. Nelson Gravis Scott 47, Nelson 47 Tie

Missouri Senate - Hawley vs. McCaskill NBC News/Marist Hawley 47, McCaskill 47 Tie

8/31/18

West Virginia Senate - Morrisey vs. Manchin MetroNews Manchin 46, Morrisey 38 Manchin +8

8/30/18

Pennsylvania Senate - Barletta vs. Casey Franklin & Marshall* Casey 47, Barletta 34 Casey +13

Pennsylvania Governor - Wagner vs. Wolf Franklin & Marshall* Wolf 52, Wagner 35 Wolf +17

New York 19th District - Faso vs. Delgado Siena Faso 45, Delgado 40 Faso +5

8/29/18

Connecticut Senate - Corey vs. Murphy Gravis Murphy 54, Corey 37 Murphy +17

Connecticut Governor - Stefanowski vs. Lamont Gravis Lamont 49, Stefanowski 40 Lamont +9

New York 22nd District - Tenney vs. Brindisi Siena Brindisi 46, Tenney 44 Brindisi +2

8/28/18

Wisconsin Senate - Vukmir vs. Baldwin Suffolk Baldwin 50, Vukmir 42 Baldwin +8

Wisconsin Governor - Walker vs. Evers Suffolk Evers 46, Walker 44 Evers +2

8/27/18

Texas Senate - Cruz vs. O'Rourke Emerson Cruz 39, O'Rourke 38 Cruz +1

California 50th District - Hunter vs. Campa-Najjar KGTV-TV/SurveyUSA Hunter 47, Campa-Najjar 39 Hunter +8

New York 24th District - Katko vs. Balter Siena Katko 54, Balter 39 Katko +15

Here's the list of people we should support, in order, in my opinion:

1. Josh Hawley

2. Ted Cruz

3. & 4. Rick Scott & Leah Vukmir

5. Marsha Blackburn

6. Mike Bost

7. Claudia Tenney

8. & 9. Peter Roskam & Thomas MacArthur

10. Dana Rohrabacker

11. Ron DeSantis

12. Scott Walker

13. Brian Kemp

14. Steve Pearce

15. Allan Fung

This list will be updated & adjusted as more information comes to bear. Please chime in–I'm not a political science major, I'm probably missing a lot of important details & welcome corrections.

The explanations follow below.

>>2943734

Close Races

Going by the poll information we have so far, these are the races that are within +/- 2 points:

California 48th District - Rohrabacher vs. Rouda NY Times/Siena Rouda 45, Rohrabacher 45 Tie

Georgia Governor - Kemp vs. Abrams Atlanta Journal-Constitution Abrams 45, Kemp 45 Tie

Illinois 12th District - Bost vs. Kelly NY Times/Siena Bost 44, Kelly 43 Bost +1

Illinois 6th District - Roskam vs. Casten NY Times/Siena Roskam 45, Casten 44 Roskam +1

Tennessee Senate - Blackburn vs. Bredesen NBC News/Marist Bredesen 48, Blackburn 46 Bredesen +2

Florida Senate - Scott vs. Nelson Quinnipiac Scott 49, Nelson 49 Tie

Florida Senate - Scott vs. Nelson Gravis Scott 47, Nelson 47 Tie

Florida Governor - DeSantis vs. Gillum Gravis Gillum 47, DeSantis 45 Gillum +2

Missouri Senate - Hawley vs. McCaskill NBC News/Marist Hawley 47, McCaskill 47 Tie

New York 22nd District - Tenney vs. Brindisi Siena Brindisi 46, Tenney 44 Brindisi +2

Wisconsin Governor - Walker vs. Evers Suffolk Evers 46, Walker 44 Evers +2

Texas Senate - Cruz vs. O'Rourke Emerson Cruz 39, O'Rourke 38 Cruz +1

Rhode Island Governor - Fung vs. Raimondo WPRI/Roger Williams* Raimondo 39, Fung 37 Raimondo +2

Maine Governor - Moody vs. Mills Suffolk* Moody 39, Mills 39 Tie

New Jersey 3rd District - MacArthur vs. Kim Monmouth Kim 45, MacArthur 44 Kim +1

New Mexico Governor - Pearce vs. Grisham Emerson Grisham 42, Pearce 40 Grisham +2

Wisconsin Senate - Vukmir vs. Baldwin Marquette Baldwin 49, Vukmir 47 Baldwin +2

Race-by-race details:

The cabal clearly has Rohrabacher in their sights–just google his name. That means he's /ourguy. He's voted with POTUS 84.3% of the time, which is 'meh,' but not bad for a CA rep. He's a member of two subcommittees in the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and has been heavily involved in the subcommittees of the House Committee on Science and Technology. He comes from one of the few Conservative-ish areas of California–recently they've been dealing with a lot of homeless overrunning their towns. So that's something to focus on.

In the Georgia Governor election, Stacey Abrams is a racist, courting the racist vote–and by racist. Just fyi, 'racist' to me means what it's supposed to mean: someone who considers skin color before anything else. Even Mother Jones has called her out in a scandal: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/05/stacey-adams-bizarre-gerrymandering-controversy/

Illinois 12th district: Mike Bost has voted with POTUS 98.9% of the time, which is the highest out of the close races listed. He's heavily involved in the Committees: two subcommittees in the House Committee on Agriculture, three subcommittees in the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, two subcommittees in the House Committee on Veterans' Affairs, and is on 10 House Caucuses. He supports Trump on the downlow and deserves our support.

Illinois 6th district: Peter Roskam has voted with POTUS 94.4% of the time, which is good. He sits on the House Committee on Ways and Means, is the Chair on the subcommittee on Health, and is on one other subcommittee.

For the TN Senate race, Marsha Blackburn has voted with POTUS 91.7% of the time as a State Rep, and POTUS has endorsed her. She sits on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, as well as three subcommittees. Bredesden has been careful not to shit on Trump, but his record tells the tale: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/22/bredesen-tennessee-senate-blackburn-791269

In the FL Senate race, Rick Scott was one of POTUS's first supporters, but is trying to keep that on the down-low to woo moderates. POTUS has given him a twitter shout-out. If he wins, it will turn both FL Senate seats red. His opponent, Bill Nelson, has only voted with POTUS 42.7% of the time. That's not bad for a Dem, but we can do better. He's the Ranking member on the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science & Transportation, the ranking member on one, and member of another subcommittee in the Senate Committee on Armed Services, a member of three subcommittees on the Senate Committee on Finance and is a member of the Special Committee on Aging. Remember that if the Dems take the majority, odds are good that he will become the chair of the Committee on Commerce, Science & Transportation.

>>2943743

Race-by-Race details, cont'd

In the FL Governor's race, Ron DeSantis voted with POTUS 94.3% of the time as a State Rep, and POTUS has been pretty vocal in supporting him. I had to go to the 6th page of Google results before I could find a single article from a Conservative outlet on him–that should show you how /theirguy he really is.

In the Missouri Senate race, Claire McCaskill voted with POTUS 45.3% of the time, which is good for a Dem but worse than any Republican. We all know she's shit–Missouri deserves a better Senator. She's the ranking member of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (3 subcommittees), a member of three subcommittees in the Senate Committee on Armed Forces, and a member of two subcommittees in the Senate Committee on Finance. This is another big fish.

For NY's 22nd District, Claudia Tenney votes with POTUS 96.7% of the time, decent for a Republican State Rep (esp. from NY). She sits on three subcommittees in the House committee on Financial Services. POTUS ran a fundraiser for her.

For the Wisconsin Governor's race, Scott Walker has been a pretty staunch Conservative, and was endorsed by POTUS who said he's a "favorite of mine".

The Texas Senate race is easily one of the most important. Ted Cruz has voted with POTUS 90.8% of the time, is a member of three subcommittees of the Committee on Armed Services, a member of three subcommittees and the chair of another in the Committee on Commerce, Science, & Transportation, a member of two subcommittees and the chairman of the subcommittee on the Constitution in the Committee on the Judiciary, as well as a member of the Joint Economic Committee and the Committee on Rules & Administration. POTUS is throwing him a rally, it's that important.

For Rhode Island Governor, Allan Fung seems to be with POTUS, but kind of on the downlow. He's been accused of defending POTUS's comments by his opponents…but support for POTUS doesn't do him much good. He's worth helping a bit.

Maine Governor: It's Attorney General Janet Mills (D) vs. Shawn Moody. Voters are split among gender lines. I wouldn't put this at the top of the list, but given Soros' support for Liberal AG's, you can see it's not in our best interest for her to win.

NJ 3rd: Thomas MacArthur has been with Trump 94.4% of the time, decent. POTUS praised him back in late '16. MacArthur sits on two subcommittees on the House Committee of Financial Services and is a member of 33 Caucuses.

NM Governor: Steve Pearce voted with POTUS 89.7% of the time as a State Rep. He's a member of the Freedom Caucus that voted against POTUS's Obamacare replacement bill, but besides that he's been fairly solid–especially considering that he's coming out of NM, which is getting bluer and bluer. He's also on two subcommittees of the House Committee on Financial Services, and two subcommittees in the House Natural Resources Committee. POTUS hasn't seemed for or against him, but his opponents are highlighting his support. There's something rotten in NM, and maybe a Republican Governor can get to the bottom of it.

Wisconsin Senate: POTUS has tweeted support for Leah Vukmir, which is pretty much all we need to know. Support for POTUS is a big bonus in that race, as the two Republican candidates were arguing over it. Her opponent, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, has voted with POTUS 22.7% of the time, so she needs to go. She is the ranking member of one, and member of four other subcommittees in the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation; she's the ranking member of one, and member of another subcommittee in the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, and is a member of five subcommittees in the Senate Committee on Appropriations. This would be another fine target.

>>2943746

Weighing Importance

As of right now, there are 51 Republicans in the Senate, 47 Democrats, and 2 Independents (who are basically Democrats). That means the Senate races are hands-down the most important races. Losing even one seat to the Dems will pretty much mean Pence will have to be a tiebreaker for everything.

There are 237 Republicans, 193 Democrats, and 5 vacancies in the House–a total of 435 seats. Republicans need to hold 218 sets to retain a majority, so they can afford to lose 19 of them and still hang on, even if all vacancies are filled by Dems (forgive me if I'm missing something here). So, while it's important to do well, it's not as critical as the Senate.

Governor races are important for various reasons–even with Trump in office, the Governorships can pretty much thwart POTUS's agenda and blame the fallout on POTUS, especially with the shill media backing them. But I would place them just behind the House races, and far behind the Senate in importance.

The Senate

We have five close Senate races: Marsha Blackburn v. Phil Bredesden, Rick Scott v. Bill Nelson, Ted Cruz v. Beto O'Rourke, Leah Vukmir v Tammy Baldwin, and Claire McCaskill v. Josh Hawley. In the TN race (Blackburn v Bredesden), the seat was held by Bob Corker, "Republican"…so losing that puts us down one. Bill Nelson (D) is the incumbent in FL, so a win by Rick Scott would put us up one. And Ted Cruz, of course, is the incumbent in the TX race.

The most important people to support, in order, are these: Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Rick Scott & Leah Vukmir (tossup), then Marsha Blackburn. The reasoning goes like this: Ted Cruz, Bill Nelson, Tammy Baldwin, and Claire McCaskill are all heavily-involved, influential members of the Senate, but Bill Nelson's and Tammy Baldwin's Committee memberships are less relevant to POTUS's agenda. If the Dems win the Senate, Bill Nelson likely becomes the chair of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, & Transportation, but McCaskill probably becomes the Chair on the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (think ICE & the Border). Tammy Baldwin isn't the ranking member of any of the Senate Committees, so it's unlikely she gets Chair on any of them. If POTUS decides he wants to push through a big infrastructure project, what Democrat on the Committee of Commerce, Science & Transportation will oppose him? But anything dealing with the border will be vehemently opposed by McCaskill. Then there's McCaskill's membership in the Senate Committee on Armed Services–this is something that cannot be fucked with. As for Ted Cruz's Committee memberships, he's perfectly placed to thwart either of those two, should the Dems regain the majority…plus he can help get the next SCOTUS nominees through. We will need some strong Constitutional arguments as to why certain prosecutions are taking place, and Ted Cruz can both make the argument and help to get applicable laws through the Committees. When it comes to Leah Vukmir and Rick Scott, I believe that Rick Scott's race is a little more important–and his early support of POTUS is a big plus–but he's rich and can better finance his campaign. Leah Vukmir's race is also important, is vocal in her support of POTUS, and probably needs our help a bit more. As far as Marsha Blackburn v Phil Bredesden goes, Bob Corker's influence is already lost given his 'retirement.'

>>2943749

The House

You would think that POTUS's endorsement would be the most important factor in deciding who we need to back, but the fact of the matter is that there are many candidates in places where POTUS's support works against them. POTUS probably knows this and has kept a respectful distance. So, the best indicator of who to support would be how they vote. So let's do it this way: someone that votes with POTUS 98% of the time gets 98 points, and someone who would replace a Democrat that votes with POTUS 16% of the time gets (100 - 16) = 84 points–we'll call these 'impact' points. Next, we should implement a 'fudge factor' for important Committee membership. Finally, we should subtract if POTUS doesn't like the person. For impact, these are the most important races to support: Mike Bost (98.9), Claudia Tenney (96.7), Peter Roskam (94.4) & Thomas MacArthur (94.4), then Dana Rohrabacker (84.3). Out of those, POTUS only seems to have had negative interactions with Roskam, but it's one

of those 'bonus points for standing up to Trump' things. His position as Chair of the House Committee on Health doesn't seem helpful, but maybe it will play a role in going after the Pharmaceuticals. As far as the others go, they all seem similar except for Rohrabacker. He might be given more weight for his Committee influence, but it doesn't overcome his poor voting record. I would keep the list as it is.

Governorships

As far as Governors go, I'd say Ron DeSantis in FL, Scott Walker WI, Brian Kemp in GA, Steve Pearce in NM, then Fung in ME. For the first two, they should be supported because they've supported POTUS's agenda; I put DeSantis ahead of Walker because FL is a bit more important, given its large, vocal voting population…but it could go either way. Brian Kemp is next in GA, for two reasons: 1) Trump could really shore up his support among Blacks if his policies were just given a chance to help them, and Stacey Abrams would likely screw that up; 2) she's corrupt, racist, and will be another loud critic of the President that the newspapers will quote every week. Steve Pearce goes ahead of Fung because NM is screwed-up: we've seen it with those judges, the fact that Epstein has a home there, the school-killers-in-training compound, etc. Finally, Fung comes last because he's a bit behind, and not exactly a vocal supporter of Trump.

>>2945622

>>2945640

Right, it really depends on your state. In California, we generally get a pamphlet in the mail discussing the various issues and stances. It used to be pretty fair, but for the last decade (or even more) it has been full of bullshit–rather than being an analysis of the positions, it's advertisements from the sides in favor and against. Oftentimes those get hijacked, imo–for instance, the arguments against often miss the obvious problems with the legislation. It's corrupt, through and through.

Besides the Senators for your state, the Representatives for your area, the State Governor, the other State positions (such as the Attorney General, Treasurer, State Superintendent, etc.), you'll have votes on Statewide, Countywide, and City (local) ordinances possibly. In California, the statewide ones are called Propositions, and they're important.

I've also signed up for mail-in voting. That means that they send me a ballot by mail, and I can mail it in whenever I want. A lot of people don't trust them, but it wasn't always as controversial as it is now. I have the option to drop the ballot off at the polling place, which is what I do unless I'm going to be busy–in which case I mail it ahead of time or leave it with someone I trust to deliver to the polling place (it requires a signature from myself and the designees name on the containing envelope).

Somehow, you should get information on your designated polling (voting) location. You will have to go there to vote, otherwise your vote will be delayed and counted with the mail-in ballots. I can't remember what these votes are called, but there's a term for them and it's how Kamala Harris beat Steve Cooley for State Attorney General after being behind by 8% on election night.

You can also get the information by searching in "<your statevote". The Secretary of State handles the voting, so you can look up that site as well.

I do all my research on the internet–there are so many races in CA, with so many names I've never heard of, it helps to do a search on each one–that's how you find out what their real stance is. There are many Republicans that aren't Republicans at all. Also, you can look up the various State, County, and Local ordinances being proposed–these are actually the most interesting parts after the Senators, Representatives, and Governors. Be very careful to dig deeply on these, because oftentimes there are ramifications that aren't obvious. For instance, in California we were given a proposition that would have released "nonviolent" offenders from jail early; we were told that this would include sex offenders, but there was a loophole and they're now being released with the likes of pot smokers.

Take your time, do the research, and when the election is over, you will be at peace with the difference you tried to make.

>>2950069

>>2943734

Claire McCaskill didn't just support Hillary Clinton–she was the first Senator to support her, all the way back in June of 2013. Josh Hawley has already pointed out their connection in an ad released in March:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/Yx_d5DtTI6U

Few people know as much about HRC as we do. One of the things we need to do is keep a focus on their tie. If you google "Claire McCaskill Hillary Clinton", the first results to pop up, of course, have to do with one of the two times McCaskill 'said something bad' about HRC. It's bullshit–she was HRC's first fucking supporter in the Senate. The people of Missouri need to know that in order to make an educated vote.

>>2951944

https://www.bustle.com/articles/561-and-here-we-go-claire-mccaskill-announces-support-for-hillary-clinton-2016

Good way to tie McCaskill to Gillibrand, ie NY values:

http://www.espn.com/espnw/news-commentary/impact25/2015/article/14252947/sens-kirsten-gillibrand-claire-mccaskill

>>2966097

Democrats are going to win some seats. It's not like they haven't brainwashed the majority of people in major metropolitan areas.

Just because the votes are electronic doesn't mean that they aren't secured. What if they're just monitoring for fraud this time, so they can jail those colluding? Fraudulent elections are nullified.

They don't have to post the National Guard outside of every voting booth to deliver on their promises. Try harder.