Can we expand this thread to include the House?

I keep hearing that the odds are that the House will change to Democrat control in November.

Using RealClearPolitics as my sauce…their data indicates that the Dems are favored in 205 races versus the Reps favored in 198 races, with 32 races considered 'toss-ups'.

Their analysis of the House battle seems skewed to favor the Dems. Currently the Reps have 236 seats (218 is a majority).

Time to unleash our autism on the 32 'toss-up' races to see how much of a 'toss up' they actually are. In my initial research…many of the 'toss-up' races are actually leaning Republican.

Any input on these specific races from anons that know these area is welcome. We are legion…there are enough of us to analyse the House races better than any other source.

Washington

RCP shows Washington State with 2 toss up races…District #5 & #8.

I don't know much about Washington, except that the Seattle area is blue, and the rest of the state is reliably red.

District #5 is on the eastern side of the state. Red territory. The race is between incumbent Cathy Rodgers (R) and Lisa Brown (D). RCP has no polling data listed. In experience, an incumbent has an advantage over a challenger, and that area of the state normally votes R. I chalk this one up as leaning R.

District #8 is the southeastern suburbs of Seattle. The race is between Dino Rossi (R) (a current state senator) and Kim Schrier (D). According to the polling data, the race is a dead heat. Rossi has more name recognition.

When you dig a little into the poll data you notice that they talked to 505 people, but they called over 40,000 people. I'm pretty sure the calls are only to people with landlines. How many people still have landlines in 2018? Also, the info on the district listed on the NY Times site states that the district has always a Republican represent it in the House. There is no incumbent in this race, as the sitting Republican Congressman for this district is not running this time. I chalk this one up as leaning R as well.

Only one state into my amateur analysis and already 2 toss-ups to add to the R's count. And that's without access to the underlying poll data to see if they over sampled D's or other obvious poll skewing techniques. Remember how wrong the polls were in 2016? Midterms are more about who voter turnout…not who they like when talking to a pollster.

California

The California Senate seats have been solidly blue for as long as I can remember…however, California is a huge state with 53 congressional districts. RCP is calling 5 of them toss-ups.

District 10 is east of the Bay area. The race is between incumbent Jeff Dunham (R) and Josh Harder (D). The only poll listed has Harder up by 5% over the incumbent. However, the incumbent is a R and the area is away from the blue urban/coastal areas. I think this race truly is a toss-up, with a slight probability the R's will hold the seat.

The 25th Congressional District is in the northern end of southern California. The race is between incumbent Stephen Knight (R) and Katie Hill (D). The available polls show the race as split, with one favoring the R, and the other showing the D with a slight lead. Since this race has a Republican incumbent in what is most likely a red area of California…I think there is a slight probability that the R's will hold this seat as well.

Continued…

California continued

The 39th District is between Gil Cisneros (D) and Young Kim (R). There isn't an incumbent running in this race, but the district has been represented by a Republican for the last six years. The polls are split between the two, with one having the R with a large lead, and one with a slight advantage for the R. The district is in Orange County. Young Kim (R) is Asian, and the district is almost 30% Asian (Wikipedia). This race truly appears to be a toss-up, but I consider it easily winnable by Republican.

The 45th District race is between incumbent Mimi Walters (R) and Katie Porter (D). The district is in Orange County and appears to be a reliably Republican District. The polling data suggest that the Dem has the edge. I have little faith in polls. I think that a Republican incumbent in a reliably red district has an advantage. This district should be in the Republican column.

The 48th District is also in Orange County and is between incumbent Dana Rohrabacher (R) and Harley Rouda (R). I know little about California, but I know parts of Orange County are Red. This district has been represented by Republicans since the early nineties. The polls show the race as a dead heat. In my opinion, these polls always skew Democratic. A Republican incumbent in a red district in an even poll situation against an unknown Democrat? Another one I think is winnable by the Republicans.

So in just 2 states…7 of the 32 supposed 'toss-up' congressional races…all appear to be red districts, easily winnable by Republicans. The bias appears to be that the pollsters are expecting a blue wave to take out these Republican seats. Why is there no red wave threatening any of the blue districts in these two states?

Utah

Isn't Utah the reddest state in the Union?

Only one congressional district is shown as a toss-up at Real Clear Politics: the 4th District.

Why this is shown as a toss-up, I don't know.

The race is between incumbent Mia Love (R) and Ben McAdams (D). All the polls show Love with a lead in this race. I guess since the lead is within the margin of error, they consider it too close to call? Strange they don't hold that same logic when the polls show a Democrat lead within the margin of error. Whatever. I consider this race to be a safe Republican win (they keep the seat).

New Mexico

I don't know much about New Mexico politics.

Based on RCP data, there is one race listed as a toss-up.

New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District has no incumbent running. The seat has been held for years by a Republican (except for the 2 years after 2008). The race this year is between Yvette Harrell (R) and Xochitl Torres Small (D). The NY time poll shows a slight advantage for the D (within the margin of error) and the local Albuquerque Journal poll has the R with a lead that exceeds the margin of victory. Of course polls are of almost no use, except that's all we have for this exercise (and what RCP and the MSM are using).

However, according to Wikipedia…the district went for Trump 50% to 40% for Clinton. That indicates that the district is Red and will likely vote for the R in this cycle.

Again…what RCP is calling as a toss-up race is actually another fairly easy R win. Not trying to be cocky…just pointing out a pattern I'm seeing.

Texas

Red Texas

How red is Texas? I don't know…I know they are getting tons of transplants from Cali and other liberal areas that may be changing the demographics of the Lone Star State. But for now, Texas is one of the reddest states.

Real Clear Politics has 2 congressional districts as toss-ups….

The 7th Congressional District…once represented by George HW Bush from '67 to '71…one of the wealthiest districts in the state…a suburb of Houston. The race is between incumbent John Culberson (R) and Lizzie Fletcher (D). Culberson has represented this district since 2001. The polls show Culberson leading, and I'm sure have a Democrat bias. Surely this race is winnable by the R's. Why is this not in the 'leaning Republican' column?

The 32nd Congressional District - home of George W. Bush. This race pits incumbent Pete Sessions (R) against Colin Allred (D).The district is a wealthy suburb of Dallas. Pete Sessions has held this seat since 2003. This is a red district in a red state. Now it is a toss-up?

The only poll available is from the NY Times and shows Sessions with a slight edge over the challenger, well within the margin of error. Is the poll accurate? Is the blue wave going to take out this Republican incumbent? Is there an anti-incumbent sentiment in the voting public this year? I don't feel it. Feels like Trump's year to me. This seat is yet another 'toss-up' that could just as easily be in the 'leans Republican' category.

Analysis of more congressional races tomorrow…

The Republicans can keep control the House of Representatives, and increase the number os seats they hold if we take action to help these contested races.

If any of you know more detail about any of the races that the MSM is calling for the Democrats, please post it here.

435 separate races are a lot to keep track of, but we have more than enough autism to keep track of the important ones.

Post what other info you've got, correct me where I fucked up, create memes to help us win these races…

Kansas

Trust Kansas?

Should We?

Real Clear Politics shows that two of Kansas' Congressional Districts are 'toss-ups'. As I have noted previously, these are both in districts currently held by Republicans.

Kansas Congressional District #2 is the western suburbs of Kansas City. The race pits incumbent Steve Watkins (R) against Paul Davis (D). The latest polls are showing Davis with a lead beyond the margin of error. Of course, I have little faith in the predictive power of polls. There are over 672,000 people in this district. One of the polls contacted 243 registered voters by landline (a few by email). How this sample size is predictive in this race doesn't compute for me.

The 3rd Congressional District is a race between incumbent Kevin Yoder (R) versus Sharice Davids (D). The available polling data shows the challenger Davids with a lead beyond the margin of error. Of course one of the polls only talked to 246 registered voters…so you be the judge. The district has been Yoder's since 2010. Not sure if there is a blue wave that will throw him out, but the district seems .red to me, another that could stay red in November…but we'll see.

Trust Kansas, do we have any Kansas anons that can shed light on the prevailing attitude towards the Republicans in these red districts? I hate that such flimsy polls are all that we have to base these predictions on. I think history and demographics is just as important as lame poll data.

Iowa

Iowa is always difficult to call.

One race is listed as a toss-up…the 3rd District. This race is between incumbent David Young (R) and Cindy Axne (D). Young has held the district since 2014, and won decisively in 2016. The district went for Trump in '16, but not by much. Iowa is weird. The polling data is showing a very close race, with no clear favorite…since I think the polls typically inflate the Dems support, I think this is another listed 'toss-up' contest that should be in the 'leans Republican' column.

The trend holds…all the 'toss-ups' seem to be the races targeted by the Democrats to take back the House. Is the polling data an accurate reflection of the voter's intentions? or just of the amount of money the Democrats have put behind these candidates?

The 1st District in Iowa is currently called as a Democrat pickup, but is currently held by Republican Rod Blum. Rep. Blum is currently the subject of an investigation by the House Ethics Committee over a non-disclosure issue. The media and the Democrats are making a big fuss about the issue and it is reflect in his low poll numbers. Will the polls reflect reality in November? We'll see…this one could be a Democrat gain.

Minnesota

Two races in MN are listed as toss-ups…true to the previous trends, both are in Red districts.

The 1st Congressional District features Jim Hagedorn (R) vs. Dan Feehan (D). There is no incumbent running in this race. The district is red, and went for Trump 53% to 38%. The incumbent is a Democrat (actually DFL), so this would be a Republican pickup if Hagedorn can win. 538 lists this race as 66% in favor of the R's FWIW.

The 8th Congressional District is also currently held by a Democrat-Farmer-Labor (D) incumbent, who is not seeking re-election. This race is between Pete Stauber (R) and Joe Radinovich (D). The district supported Trump in 2016. The polls show an even race, which I interpret as an advantage to the R's. Stauber has raised more cash in the race. This race appears to be another potential gain for the Republicans.

Illinois

Two districts are listed as toss-ups in the Land of Lincoln.

The 12th District is between incumbent Mike Bost (R) and Brendan Kelly (D). The polls show a slight advantage for Bost. The district supported Trump in 2016 (55%). Being the incumbent is usually a pretty strong position, but is not reflected in the RCP analysis. Another one that should be in the 'lean Republican' column.

The 6th District is the wealthy suburbs of Chicago. The race is between incumbent Peter Roskam (R) and Sean Casten (D). The district has been represented by R's since 1973. The polls show a slight advantage for Roskam, I'm not seeing why this race would be in the toss-up category. Over reliance on polls, IMO. Should be another easy Red seat for the Republicans to hold.

Michigan

Only one district listed as a toss-up at RCP…the 8th district of Michigan.

Why is this red district listed as a toss-up?

The race features incumbent Mike Bishop (R) facing challenger Elissa Slotkin (D). Bishop has held the seat since 2015. The district went for Trump in 2016 (51%). The polling data favors Bishop. 538 shows Bishop as the favorite, although it is interesting to note that Slotkin has kicked his ass in fundraising (almost $2.3 million raised to date!) I think this is another seat the Republicans should be able to hold