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Experts Spar Over New Estimate of 22 Million Illegal Immigrants in US
After Yale researchers estimated there are perhaps 22 million illegal immigrants in the United States, multiple immigration think-tanks blasted the study for flawed methodology. But the authors have pushed back.
The study estimated that there are 12-37 million illegal immigrants in the country, with a conservative estimate of 16.7 million and an average estimate of 22.1 million.
Multiple expert groups, including those of the Homeland Security Department (DHS), have for years estimated the number to be about 11-12 million (pdf).
The old estimates used the “residual” method, where the number of legal immigrants is subtracted from the Census Bureau count of all immigrants. The result is then corrected upwards for under-reporting as illegal immigrants are more likely to be missed or avoid census counts and surveys.
The new estimate starts from a 1990 baseline of 3.5 million illegal immigrants, which has been somewhat validated by how many took advantage of the 1986 immigration amnesty. The researchers then estimated how many people illegally crossed the borders, overstayed their visas, were deported, left the country on their own, gained legal status, or died.
By using new DHS data on visa overstays and illegal border crossings, the authors—Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi, Jonathan Feinstein, and Edward Kaplan—estimated the illegal immigrant population for 2016.
The study was published in the PLOS One journal on Sept. 21.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/experts-spar-over-new-estimate-of-22-million-illegal-immigrants-in-us_2669190.html
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