dChan - Q Origins Project Archive

@LarrySchweikart

Larry predicts 5 Senate pickups, 10 House losses. Repubs keep the house.

Final thread, but very important data.

in 2016 "Ohio Wan" and "The Accountant" in a major, bellwether Ohio county assembled a one of a kind data set.

Ohio law throws anyone who doesn't vote in the previous election into the "unaffiliated" category.

1) In 2012, the "unaffiliated" voters fooled most of us because we thought they were "independents" and Minion was leading with indies by several points.

WRONG.

They were "lazy Ds" who had not voted in the primary because Zero was unopposed.

2) So in 2016, "Ohio Wan" and "The Accountant" tried to figure out exactly who these "U"s were—Ds or Rs. They looked through EVERY "U" household's voting pattern for the last 20 years and assigned them as Rs, Ds, or actual Is.

3) Based on that, they concluded that Trump would likely at worst tie that county—which had gone for Zero 2x, Kerry, Gore, Slick 2x.

Sure enough, their prediction was not only right, it was a little low.

4) So here it comes: the first week's worth of absentee ballots are already in.

"Ohio Wan" and "The Accountant" applied their model. After allocating the Us based on voting history, Rs are up 4,000 out of the first 30,000 ballots.

5) This by itself isn't overwhelming: in this county Rs always lead in mail-in absentees, Ds take back the lead in early voting walk-in, and Rs dominate election day.

6) BUT . . . are you ready for this? AFTER JUST ONE WEEK, 30,000 BALLOTS HAVE BEEN RETURNED.

7) In all of 2016–a presidential election year—a total of only 45,000 absentees were returned!

In other words, this county has already seen 2/3 of the 2016 level of absentees returned in a single week, and Rs have a solid lead!

8) TALK ABOUT ENTHUSIASM!

9) Finally, asked why I'm so optimistic about Renacci: "Ohio Wan" and "The Accountant" applied their assignment model of Us statewide. This is legit because of the makeup of the county.

The OH SecState says Rs have a 600,000 registration advantage. That's not quire right.

10) Once again it doesn't factor in the "U" voters. When these Us were assigned to their likely respective parties, Rs only have a 300,000 registration advantage, but there are only 2,000 Us un-assigned.

In other words, once you properly assign the indies, Rs are up big.

11) Therefore (and a Bible teacher I once had always said "when you see 'therefore' ask what it's there for"

WHEN YOU COMBINE a 300,000 reg advantage with this OUTRAGEOUS enthusiasm measure, I think the DemoKKKrats are in for Stalingrad.

12) Moreover, since OH is truly a bellwether of so many other states, even if "redder," I think these results mean that . . .

the DemoKKKrats have no idea what is about to hit them in November.