Inclined to agree on your logic. We just have to wait and see what the midterms bring. After the midterms are saved, big arrests will soon have to follow: if the big fish still walk after that, Q's credibility will take a hit, no doubt.
However, I have received some serious personal attacks (both direct and indirect), and I gather it's cause I've been quite deeply involved in this movement. If Q is a LARP, it doesn't explain that.