For the turn… ty baker
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/10/14/national/politics-diplomacy/china-nudges-japan-joining-belt-road-initiative-14th-annual-tokyo-beijing-forum/
Following up on the announcement of Xi and Abe meeting from yesterday 2nd pic. Not since 2011.
https://www.rt.com/news/436786-central-bank-moscow-fire/
Published time: 24 Aug, 2018 17:47
Futures
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures
these markets are VERY thin and can be pushed around easily. You also must match size and price for the most part.
Do not put much into these moves until each mkt opens. The regs in most of the world have been changing and will continue to as ours have done since mid-2017.
I can barely with what's going on here/japan which imo is the key to the entire reset. I don't bother much with europe….THEY ARE FUCKED. Action should not be ignored but as our markets become disconnected they will matter less and less.
Asia stable as more come online.
Europe looking tired and not able to do much.
US is slightly lower
after 8:30am is when we should see which way they want it taken.
NFLX is going down after it's 'earnings' release.
That is classic "oh fuck we have to slow this down" action in that stock.
pump and dump all day
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-earnings-need-know-markets-tuesday-221014369.html
This report will be closely watched after the company missed on second quarter earnings, sending shares down sharply, while reporting fewer subscriber additions than expected. Analysts expect Netflix to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.81 on revenue of $4 billion for the third quarter, according to estimates from Bloomberg. Netflix said in its second quarter letter to shareholders that it expects to add 5 million subscribers in the third quarter, down from 5.3 million adds in the same quarter last year.
“A second straight subscriber miss would likely be taken very negatively by the Street, and we would expect a more protracted decline in the share price than we saw in seasonally-weak Q2,” analysts at Macquarie said in a note to clients last week."
This is a perfect example of financial 'journalism'.
It is a bit better than most however it fails because it uses too many words to tell you NOTHING.
"It may" or "possiblity" or "looking for direction"
Newsflash…that is YOUR job as a writer to clarify the opacity.
Take a side with your evidence.
The result leaves the reader with more questions instead of a starting place to find an answer for them.
This kid would do a better job then most.
Zero-Down Subprime Mortgages Are Back, What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-14/zero-down-subprime-mortgages-are-back-what-could-possibly-go-wrong
Had to happen…running out of things to monetize.
So who is the counter-party this time?? Kek!
The citizens of this country were last time.
Bank earnings!!
What a crock of shit. How much of the public float was bought by the famous Share Repurchase Agreements all these banks have?
Decrease shares available and PRESTO!
Instant EPS performance.
The instructions are on the back of EVERY bottle of shampoo.
Surprised if morning pop lasts.
it's lasted so far. I was wrong….today.
It's a slow-motion train-wreck in case you had not noticed.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-16/what-do-they-know-blackrock-exposes-institutional-exodus-stocks
Tick tock…Retail ALWAYS gets left holding the bag.
Also this affected it as yields needed to be flat to lower so they could push this out the door. New 2 month bill- collected before 2019…………….do I need to mention that again? Kek!
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-16/us-treasury-sells-first-ever-2-month-bill-here-are-details
Booms coming
Looks like the roller coaster continues. Futures down
Treasury is in 'auction' mode so the indexes should be up if they want to push this out with a lower yield.
Something is pushing the 10yr down slightly. It's not organic imo as action in futures says yields should be up slightly.
Since it is the stock du jour and the talking heads can't stop blowing RH and crew. There is actually a decent piece that presents it's reality.
Missing in NFLX's numbers (for a long time in fact) is how much it spends acquiring customers and keeping them. Subscriber Acquisition Costs or SAC.
Key metric on how much it spends to get and keep customers.
This is a case of if you do not like the results just stop reporting them.
If you followed this advice from Monday you did not do very well. GS loves using it's own customers to trade it's prop book against.
Perfect example here:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/netflix-stock-price-target-cut-by-goldman-sachs-ahead-of-earnings-report-2018-10-1027617569
told you that NFLX 6 month chart was not pretty
That's just desperation. A few more chairs being removed. It has to last more then 2.5 days
Margin call on highly leveraged positions.
Forced sales to cover. It can get ugly quickly if allowed.
China's New Strategy for Curbing World's Worst Stock Slide
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/in-china-plunge-protection-goes-local-in-latest-market-slump
Never a good sign. Going all in to stop the avalanche
At the rate it has appreciated over 10 years it does not need a reason to crash. It is and has been on steroids since early march '09.
Following up with the recent announcement of a 10% consumption tax this will be done for the daily consumables.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/10/19/business/japanese-government-looks-make-daily-goods-eligible-2-rebate-plan-following-consumption-tax-hike/
Imo watching what happens in Japan is important, let alone WW. There are clues everywhere as to how each place will operate. Once we all have sovereignty the world's internal systems(monetary) should operate in a similar fashion.
This 2% rebate is a smart way to not penalize people who will already need to buy food, clothing, everyday things. You should not be spending $5 a day for .50 worth of sugar and coffee-if you do-your choice.
Taxing stupidity or a spending tax of 10% is required imo.
Why do you need a new car every 2-4 years?
Both my cars are over 15years old however driving/looking at them you would never know it.
Take care of the things you have and this spending crap would stop.
Add about 15 years to that on the back end then you are close.
How do you know when and what I traded?
FO
most financial headlines today are pretty sanguine.
Round 2 starts tonight as Asia opens up.
This was quite interdasting upon it's open.
Coming soon….KEK!
Looks like a hand-off of some sorts..failed or not it was seen. Not an everyday happening
Another example of yesterday's news tomorrow.
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/101aeca3-d8f6-3878-880f-efa8fa9fc8c9/watch-out-for-%E2%80%98dead-cat.html
Hey I think I have seen this somewhere…….about two weeks ago.
These guys are such fucking amateurs and sell-outs.
"it'll bounce….HODL!"
Just another day for these 'professional' hucksters of hope.
Slammed on the open and held down so far.
Dis not a good sign. The ESF will need four-ply soon
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-25/5-billion-hedge-fund-spo-shuts-we-find-it-exceedingly-difficult-deploy-capital
This is the start of the process. The poorly run ones will be the first and it will make it's way to being a systemic problem.
When everyone claims the same set of assets (see re-hypothecation) at the same time…well.
Look for cracks in the system to show up ala IndySmack in 2008. Lines of credit will start to be frozen and money market funds will be locking down any redemptions.
Happened this way in 2008. Go look
Good luck
Corps and Banks (fee's collected) are in a panic to push as much debt into the system as it implodes.
Pic 2 is scheduled for monday from Constellation Brands and KeyCorp 'bank'
Notice the coupon rate.
That would be nice for a CD or savings account right?
No soup for us.
1 st pic is 5 day avg of equity vols
https://www.nyse.com/trader-update/history#110000109457
That's a big stack of paper….
Out of paper-based everything.
No way that is real…..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-27/imf-approves-upsized-563bn-bailout-loan-argentina-here-are-implications
IMF Approves Upsized $56.3BN Bailout Loan For Argentina: Here Are The Implications
ex
On Friday, the IMF Executive Board completed its first review of the Argentine 3-year Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). As a result, the revised SBA was upsized to $56.3 billion (SDR40.71BN), up from $50bn under the original program of which $15bn were disbursed in June. With the approval, the IMF will disburse $5.7bn (SDR 4.1bn) immediately, and likely another $7.7bn before the end of the year.
As reported before, the revised SBA augments and frontloads the access to IMF funding: compared with the original SBA access to IMF funding was increased by $19 billion through the end of 2019, to $36.2bn total (up from $17.5bn in the original June SBA). Specifically, US$13.4bn will be disbursed during the remainder of 2018 (on top of $15bn disbursed in June), and another $22.8bn in 2019 (≈$5.7bn/quarter). Finally, $5.9 billion are planned for 2020-21
Furthermore, Goldman notes that the IMF program would no longer be treated as precautionary and the authorities intend to use IMF funds for budget support.
On fiscal policy the new program envisages a zero primary fiscal balance in 2019 and primary surpluses starting in 2020 (although in a curious concession by the IMF, the press release does not mention the 1% of GDP surplus for 2020 that the authorities announced a month ago).
Under the new program, the main innovations relate to monetary and FX policy: in order to “decisively reduce inflation” and inflation expectations the Central Bank will shift toward a “stronger, simpler, and more verifiable monetary policy regime, temporarily replacing the inflation targeting regime with a monetary base target”. The monetary authority will now target zero nominal growth of the monetary base from now until June 2019 (the targets for December and June will be adjusted for seasonal factors given the usual pick up in money demand in those months).
According to Goldman's Alberto Ramos, the new program restrains activism in the FX market. The IMF press release states that “in the event of extreme overshooting of the exchange rate, the BCRA may conduct limited intervention in foreign exchange markets to prevent disorderly market conditions. Such intervention would be unsterilized.”
FX policy will now have a clear rules-based framework: as long as the ARS/USD trades within pre-set moving bands there will be no FX market intervention (which the authorities label the no-intervention zone). Starting October 1, the central bank set the ARS/USD lower-limit at 34 and the upper-limit at 44; the limits will be increased daily at a 3% monthly rate until the end of the year. If the currency starts to trade above the upper-limit the central bank would automatically sell up to US$150mn/daily (a non-sterilized intervention which would imply a contraction of the monetary base).
Don't be one of these people.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-27/paranoid-traders-have-seen-market-only-twice-1970s-stagflation-and-global-financial
"Paranoid" Traders Have Seen A Market Like This Only Twice Before: The 1970s Stagflation And The Global Financial Crisis
It's just spoon fed media crap. No humans are involved in trading so these pictures you see of the 'professionals' being worried on the floor has been a movie for a long time.
The first chart is proof that an infinite amount of credit creation simply cannot continue.
The divergence between HY credit and bond market is and has been well-documented however we have never gone this far in a Bull mkt cycle.
Just overlay the DJIA from 1960-64 with 2015-present
We have always had more than we know.
Don't let the door hit you on the way out.
eventually our adversary's would come here.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/theres-bearish-myth-going-around-earnings-season-192854410.html
HODL ;)
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-31/gm-soars-10-after-beating-dramatically-lowered-earnings-bar
I'm sure cash for clunkers and channel-stuffing has nothing to do with your 'beat'. Pulling all that demand forward while still being able to rent almost every available lot to put your 'sales' on.
pic shows trend up to 2012.
seems we have some issues with baking today on the /research side. Currently no available bread.
Fuckery afoot
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/10/31/business/economy-business/japan-looks-use-pacific-trade-pact-shield-tough-u-s-demands/
ex
Now that the year-end launch of a trans-Pacific free trade framework has become official, expectations are growing that it will provide Japan with a much-anticipated line of defense ahead of bilateral trade talks with the United States.
The 11-member pact, once envisioned as a check on China’s clout but abandoned by U.S. President Donald Trump as part of his “America First” agenda, will kick in on Dec. 30, economic revitalization minister Toshimitsu Motegi said Wednesday, after Australia became the sixth country to ratify the deal.
Frantic behind-the-scenes, Japanese-led diplomacy kept a slimmed-down version of the pact alive among the remaining members after the U.S. withdrawal in hopes of a change of heart in Washington about eventually rejoining the deal.
Even without the participation of the world’s largest economy, the deal, known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, has been described as a game-changer.
These docs dropped today show the complete takeover by tech of the bay area.
Lock, stock and everything else not tied down or defended.
What I see here is 2 sided. Not only does it create a call on virtually everything in this country…pretty obvious there.
It also allows the note holder to create more debt because it can book this receivable now as an annuity going forward.
This is key in understanding how our system is put together. All of the regulations that were removed after 1982 were just setting us up for what we now have. A black hole of debt and money creation to support it. Wall Street decided
'hey we need some of THAT shit too"
Enter Donald Regan ex ML CEO/CBOD
https://www.economist.com/obituary/2003/06/19/donald-regan
The almost comical nature of this document for what it really does and conveys is………..staggering. Filing a response to any court document is more time-consuming than this.
Can you execute someone more than once?
Futures up, no surprise. Now the sacks of crap the system moved around to themselves towards the qtr close are moved back to the original owners.
hence the flow is sustained for another qtr.
Been a few of those recently.
found this:
https://exploreoakridge.com/blog/calutron-girls-of-oak-ridge
ex
During World War II, thousands of women moved to the newly established city of Oak Ridge in search of a better life. With many young men serving overseas, there was a demand for a new female labor force. Women were drawn to jobs at Clinton Engineer Works (a front for the Manhattan Project) with promises of good pay and affordable lodging. A former calutron girl, Gladys Owens, recalled that the rent at her dormitory was $10 per month.
While many of the women who moved to Oak Ridge were from nearby towns in Tennessee, workers came from around the South and even from towns in the Midwest and cities in the Northeast. By 1945, 75,000 people were living and working in the Secret City.
Overall market is toppy and volume declining.
NAS vol better
I'd snif around for a short here but not much.
I think you are spot on. They also acquired the legacy short position. That has been handed off every 10-12 years for decades. Can't recall the sequence but it's been in or on the books of some familiar names. Sal. Bros., Drexel BL, to name a few.
The run up smashed on the same day we 'catch' OBL plus birth cert drama just stank.
They short it at the top and drive it down collecting phys and it's short profit to boot.
As far as the evil plan….perhaps they were going to take it with them and bail to China or SouthPole or who knows Mars bitches!
Smoke up buddy
Not unusual thing to see repeating patterns in this over years.
Not usual times at present. ^…..^
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-01/tether-says-it-has-18-billion-offshore-bank-account
ex
It has been two weeks since tether, the "stablecoin" of choice for crypto day traders who need to quickly enter and exit positions in different alt coins, broke below its $1 peg to trade as low as 85 cents as long-simmering doubts about its dollar backing exploded back into view, stoked by rumors that several prominent exchanges were preparing to de-list it.
While tether has recovered, skepticism about the feasibility of tether, and "stablecoins" in general, has continued to fester, stoked by the fact that tether's parent company has never bothered to publish an audit of its holdings to prove to the public that it has the necessary dollar reserves to guarantee convertibility. Tether also found itself at the center of a separate controversy back in June when a University of Texas academic published a paper alleging that shady traders were using tether to manipulate the price of bitcoin.
moar ref
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/technology/cryptocurrency-puerto-rico.html
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-14/mysterious-crypto-billionaires-taking-over-puerto-rico
Of course I would trust money I had in that system (EOS, BitFinex, tether, Noble bank) since this guy was involved in it.
never said they were mysterious…pretty obvious what these 'people' were up to..years ago.
you don't shadow bot..nothing else to do but follow us around?
been awfully quiet out of treasury lately, Nothing.
SM real allegiance is still under a cloud. Have never trusted him due to indymac/onewest/frb dealings.
Would love to see what transpired in the meeting from last week.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-05/treasury-sell-record-amount-debt-yields-verge-breakout
As previewed on Halloween, when we broke down the Treasury's latest quarterly refunding, the US Treasury is set for a record round of Treasury note and bond auctions, selling a whopping $83 billion, up from $78 billion three months ago, and surpassing the prior all time refunding total set by Tim Geithner back in 2009.
But before that, the week starts off in a frenzy of sales as the Treasury sells three- and six-month bills on Monday and four-, eight- and 52-week Bills ahead of a week crowded with the U.S. midterm elections, FOMC meeting and coupon auctions. Specifically, the Treasury will auction $45b of three-month and $39BN of six-month bills at 11:30am ET on Monday; followed by $26BN of 52-week debt on Tuesday, while the sizes of four- and eight-week offerings will be unveiled at 11am ET on Monday.
As we noted previously, the ballooning budget shortfall, fueled by Trump's tax cuts, spending hikes and an aging population, will result in a massive $1.34 trillion in total bond sales this calendar year.
Add this:
November 7-8 FOMC Meeting (Nov)
See pic 2
good luck getting through the exits along with everyone else.
You have to have both dig and paper for the very reason you point out. There are many clues that the new paper is already done. Not saying I have absolute proof but enough out there to indicate it was finished over the last few months.
This is not about screwing the people who built this country as this would reward the goons.
Elderly, young, etc we all need a different solidly backed system.
Until we get that it's bailing wire and chewing gum for the most part.
This is the 250k in 900* cities crap we were 'threatened' with by the shills.
277 people per city…..Yawn
-
or whatever the ratio was.
The numbers they can 'put up' was laughed at by most.
wow
>Doesn't matter, elections were lost, nothing's been done. Pretty clear the dollar will stay
then why are you here?
948655 (2)
not the only person in the world that has arrived at that conclusion. In fact, there are many people prior to most of us being born that have had similar ops. The digital agae allows everyone to share what they find.
anyone can hang themselves by making predictions and going to the mat with them. If right so be it ..wrong so be it.
The overall body of work on that subject is not limited to any one person.
That person has made a good solid factual arrangement of many things. Bag on it if you want.
You glow hard BTW
shitposters
came in around early oct. anything substantial posted and the shills come in to convince you that you are wrong.
Stick to your own interpretations and ignore them.
BO
WTF? No bread for research
tick tock
There Is A Huge Disconnect Between Energy Credit And Equity
Oil prices have swung drastically over the last couple months. The market was unprepared for the US to grant waivers amounting to nearly one million barrels/day to fill the void expected to be left by the drop in Iranian exports. Instead of Iranian exports plunging to almost zero by November, they have been allowed a more shallow glide path. This has thrown the oil market off-balance by about one million barrels/day.
Especially strange is the fact that the US asked Saudi Arabia to pump another approximately one million barrels/day earlier in the year, and the Kingdom has delivered, taking OPEC’s production up by one million barrels/day since June. Yesterday, Saudi Arabia floated the idea of trimming OPEC’s production by one million barrels/day by December.
rest here
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-14/there-huge-disconnect-between-energy-credit-and-equity
_____
Not news to people who watch. These correlations have been breaking down for severalyears if not the last 10.
See HYG vs S&P for high interest credit dislocations.
This is what happens when an infinite amount of fiat is torched to create growth.
for you shills.
EAT IT
How's that working out for you BCH 'trader'
and before you get cocky and make another general statement
POST YOUR TAPE or STFU
you all were warned of cryptos crashing months ago.
No one said a word back then. Interesting its been a defensive position since the very first shill showed up here about a month ago. Fully aware of the need and structure blockchain provides. Several discussions, good ones , in the first bread.
Wait until the tree's are fully shaken and not just stirred.
Bloodbath in all crypto's over last 6 weeks. BC cash is a fookin' riot
Hope Mr. Trade got out in time..sure he did not.
Have no idea however towards end of year would be a good place to sniff around to see what is left of the wind.
Ever since Mt. Gox fiasco and the 'missing' coins was when I decided to not play.
Believe in the chain and it is BADLY needed.
hope is that honest people/traders are allowed to actually trade a real free-market.
That will be a big job to accomplish.
Trust boss to deliver as the framework for removing the cumbersome system we have has been in progress.
totally agree. If it's 'valued' in toilet paper then act accordingly. Easy to say and hard to do. Learned that lesson in 2006
Finally some sanity here. Entrenched beliefs keep people from seeing the forest through the tree's. Responded to this particular one as it's short, concise and to the point.
Let these people hang themselves. No one can convince anyone else of ANYTHING.
They will find out soon enough.
o7 and respect.