You need to check out the twitter feed of —
Larry Schweikart@LarrySchweikart.
Short form — He is tracking early voting returns in states that report total votes by party affiliation and its looking like Red Tsunami. This was one of his recent threads —
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1) Last night I said we have 12 data points (AZ statewide, FL statewide +4 specific counties, IA + 2 counties, OH 2 counties, and NC). Every single one was showing GOP turnout higher than midterm levels of 2014 and all but one (a county) showing turnout above 2016.
2) If I recall all the data correctly, D turnout/performance was below that of 2016 and, in the case of IA, below that of 2014. 3) Now we have two more data points to add: news out of WY that a net of 10k switched from D/other to R in last six months & turnout #s in Knox Co. TN
3) Out of 12 MEASURABLE data points–not polls which are opinions of what people “might” do in the future—every single one is favors the Rs. 4) I’ll admit, I got a tad depressed for a minute yesterday when the latest Siena/NYT polls came out . . . before I was reminded . . .
4) . . they were making 60,000 calls to reach a mere 300 respondents. SIXTY THOUSAND! 5) Who do you think is NOT responding? Conservatives, Republicans, people with families & jobs. 6) That means these NYT polls are utterly worthless with a margin of error of 20% or more
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The thing that stood out for me in that passage was it now takes -200- calls to get one ‘valid’ poll result, with a 20% “error bar” because…(my speculation) unscreenable lying to the poll taker.
All media polls are is nothing but propaganda to manipulate voter turn out.