Anonymous ID: 68c4c1 Oct. 31, 2018, 10:45 p.m. No.3683935   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>3955 >>3983

>>3683404

Yessir. Then when oversampling by 3-5% isn't enough to get the answer they want, they go deep on the quantitative faggotry. I don't even bother watching the polls anymore, but i watched it closely in horror during 2015/16.

 

The next step is at the poll aggregation level where they combine several smaller polls to get regional estimates. In the small polls, it's standard practice to look at how the polls performed vs reality in the past and adjust for it. If this college/town/call list skewed 5% Democrat in the last x elections, they will take the current poll numbers and -5% from the Dem numbers to normalize the noise. This is where Nate Silver became the world's most despised quantitative analyst in 1yr flat.

 

So clearly every single poll skews Republican even though that's not true at all and never has been. But they just go ahead and +2-3% to Dem poll numbers on top of the already overrepresented Dem sample.

 

Then MSM hires their own in house analyst to combine all the major polls for home consumption. They do the exact same thing again.

 

Then when they've got a dozen or two rigged separate polls, they throw it all into a new calculation that looks at the overall result.

 

If you have 50 quarters that show heads 55% of the time, what are the chances that the majority of flips are heads? Basically 100%. What are chances that the majority of their rigged polls are wrong? Basically zero.

 

And that's how a couple percentage points of faggotry that most people would never notice ends up saying that Hillary has a 99% chance of winning. It's fucking insidious and ethically unfathomable. And they all did it. All of them. Gallup did it. Rcp did it. Reuters did it. Rasmussen did it. And I'm sure they all blame some 3rd party cunts who "helped" poll people on the ground, but the whole fucking point of these companies existing is to know better than to do this. And the simple oversampling is the smoking gun. Literally every single quant who works at these places learned not to do this in undergrad statistics.

 

So my question, being me, is how many honest, baffled young econ majors got railroaded and professionally destroyed to staff EVERY MAJOR POLLING ORGANIZATION with people stupid enough and or evil enough to do this? Where are the whistleblowers and where is the reform to earn back the public's trust? I almost feel bad for the MSM taking the brunt of the blame. They had one or two people who should fucking know better per newsroom. Nobody really earnestly believes Wolf Blitzer is capable of crunching the numbers.

 

If they weren't fucking deepstate, every news anchor who humiliated themselves reporting these garbage numbers would be at the polling organizations doors with pitchforks and torches. But they are deepstate. So it's about Trumps umbrella.