Larry Schweikart @LarrySchweikart

3h

Psst. While no one was looking FL Rs EXPANDED their lead by 1000 more votes.

But, you know, Gillum's Island gonna win .

About 4 million ballots have been cast in Texas. There is no party registration here. The only thing we can use to determine who's voting is using turnout from "Red" and "Blue" counties and compare to statewide average.

STATEWIDE TURNOUT SO FAR: 32.43%

BLUE COUNTIES:

HARRIS-29.42% (-3.01%)

DALLAS-32.14% (-0.31%)

BEXAR-30.75% (-1.68%)

TRAVIS-38.22% (+5.79%)

EL PASO-25.12% (-7.31%)

HIDALGO-25.59% (-6.84%)

CAMERON-21.53% (-10.9%)

RED COUNTIES:

TARRANT-33.55% (+1.12%)

COLLIN-40.52% (+8.09%)

DENTON-37.42% (+4.99%)

MONTGOMERY-34.36% (+1.93%)

WILLIAMSON-40.53% (+8.1%)

I decided on red and blue counties based on last election results (see link below). These are many of the biggest counties in the state. I didn't list all of them. But the pattern generally remains the same. Blue counties are under-performing relative to statewide turnout and Red counties are over-performing relative to statewide turnout.

In addition the people at TargetSmart who have modeled all the voters (scary that they are able to do this) have determined a "modeled" electorate. They have some proprietary formula to determine whether someone is an R or a D. This is their data below:

REPS-2,378,270 voters have cast ballots

DEMS-1,689,078 voters have cast ballots

In particular with TargetSmart, I would be careful with them. Still no real track record that I can find - this is all rather new. They are a Democratic firm so I see no reason why they would pump up the data for the Reps. The main point I would make is the GOP counties are voting at a heavier level than the DEM counties (other than Travis).

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/texas

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2018/oct31.shtml

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/charts.html?state=TX

1 posted on 11/01/2018 7:19:02 PM PDT by Ravi