The 2018 US midterm elections are shaping up to be not just a rematch of the 2016 presidential race but a rerun, as Democrats and the media seem determined to repeat the same mistakes that produced the presidency of Donald Trump.
Just look at the headlines, the polls, and the talking heads on television. Doesn’t this remind you of 2016? Once again, celebrities and late-night show hosts are beseeching their fans to vote, while newspapers pen fawning pieces about Democrats “making history,” the inevitability of the “Blue Wave,” and the racist, racist, RACIST nature of every Republican ever, especially Trump.
The only thing that has changed is that most media outlets - which had overwhelmingly endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016 - don’t even bother hiding their preferences. Everything is out in the open now, stripped of all pretense and posturing. Ironically, that is one of the effects of the Trump presidency.
“They had learned nothing and forgotten nothing,” is a quote attributed to a famous diplomat from over 200 years ago, about a French royal dynasty. It applies just as well to the American political dynasties - the Clintons and the Bushes - and their coteries, deposed by Trump in 2016.
What they did not realize then, and do not appear to realize even now, is that their tried-and-tested tricks simply didn’t work against Trump, who is not a professional politician and doesn’t react like one. Love him or hate him, agree with his policies or not, this is a fact. Rather than recognize that fact and deal with it accordingly, Trump’s critics just stuffed more wool into their ears and continued screaming “RACIST,” as if that invocation was somehow magical.
It is this sort of magical thinking that doomed the Democrats in 2016. It wasn’t just bad data, or a terrible job interpreting it, but the fact that both the media and the Clinton campaign wanted to believe their own hype. Instead of reporting reality, the media thought they could create it. So they pretended the railroading of Bernie Sanders did not happen, and confidently predicted Clinton would crush Trump. Then came the night of November 8 and the shocked, stunned long faces in TV studios and at the Javits Center.
“They came in the same old way, and we saw them off in the same old way,” is a quote attributed to the Duke of Wellington after defeating Napoleon at Waterloo. As best as I can tell, it’s apocryphal. The actual Wellington described the battle as “the nearest run thing you ever saw in your life.” Which will the 2018 midterms more closely resemble? We’re about to find out.