Wall Street's $45 Trillion China Dream Inches Toward Reality
Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a speech last week that the country was “steadily widening the opening up” of its financial industry.
For China watchers, steadily was the key word. Almost exactly a year after the country announced historic plans to ease local ownership rules and entry barriers to what’s now a $45 trillion industry, the pace of change has been closer to a crawl than a sprint. While Xi signaled that China’s opening remains on track despite the country’s trade war with America, he also made it clear that policy makers will move deliberately.
The world’s biggest financial firms have adopted much the same stance. Even as they applaud China’s opening, many are taking a cautious approach as they weigh the country’s enormous long-term potential against its growing number of short-term challenges – everything from the trade war to sinking stock prices and rising defaults.
“Firms are taking a wait-and-see attitude to see whether they will be able to compete on a level playing field in China,” Mark Austen, chief executive officer of the Asia Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association, said in an interview.
The most important changes announced a year ago allow foreign companies to take majority stakes in local securities firms, mutual fund managers, banks and insurers.
So far, most of the action has taken place in the securities industry. UBS Group AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Nomura Holdings Inc. have all submitted applications for majority stakes in their Chinese joint ventures, according to regulatory filings, and Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse Group AG are expected to apply. While Beijing has yet to sign off on a foreign-controlled business under the recently completed rules, the first approval could come soon.
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It’s not hard to understand China’s appeal to global investment banks. At $5.6 trillion and $11 trillion, respectively, the country’s equity and debt markets are the world’s third largest. And their importance will only grow as policy makers move to reduce the economy’s reliance on bank lending. For global securities firms, that means plenty of opportunities for brokerage, advisory and underwriting fees.
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