The Threat to Nancy Pelosi’s Speakership Is Suddenly Serious
Hmmmmmm…. A house divided?……
Following House Democrats’ first full meeting with both their departing members and incoming members-elect, reporters asked Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan—who’s organizing a suddenly serious opposition to Nancy Pelosi’s bid for speaker—whether he and his allies would really follow through with the effort that’s driving such a rift within the caucus, on its first day in charge, during its first vote.
“Yes,” he said. He didn’t miss a beat.
Ryan claims that his group has members numbering in the “mid-20s” who are adamant that they would not support Pelosi in a floor vote for speaker. Of those known publicly, it’s about an even split between incumbents who’ve sought to overthrow Pelosi for years and new members who ran on a pledge not to support her. Since Pelosi can only suffer about 15 or 17 defections, and if this group’s resolve is as firm as its generals insist it is, she would not have the votes. On Tuesday night, Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton, one of Pelosi’s most persistent thorns, said with “100 percent” confidence that Pelosi would not have the numbers to become speaker, as did Texas Rep. Filemon Vela.
At some point prior to the Nov. 28 caucus vote determining the party’s nominee for the post, the rebels plan to release a public letter with the signatures of members who would not vote for Pelosi. (An early copy of the letter, obtained by HuffPost Wednesday, already had 17 signatures with more in the wings.) Ideally, they say, Pelosi would see the writing on the wall, bow out of the contest before the caucus vote, and allow House Democrats to nominate someone else who could get 218 votes, thereby avoiding an embarrassing spectacle on the floor.
Minds can change—but those close to Pelosi say that she will never do that.
“Pelosi has been clear she’s taking this to the floor,” one senior Democratic aide said. “She just elected the [most] diverse House of Representatives in history, and she’s not going to be deterred by five white guys.” Her strategy is to win the closed-door caucus nomination on Nov. 28, present the choice as a binary between her and Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, and turn the pressure to a boil, daring Ryan’s group to block her on live television.
With each side expressing 100 percent confidence in their ability to succeed, the first House Democratic majority in eight years is headed toward a game of chicken that could play out on the House floor. Just how a majority loves to kick off a fresh congressional session in power.
Though she may dismiss her opposition with a flick of the wrist in public, the flood of emails pouring out from the Pelosi press office suggests that the insurgents have her attention. The leader has blasted endorsements out to reporters, including those from key committee chairmen; unions like the AFL-CIO, United Steelworkers, and the Service Employees International Union; NARAL; and, for some reason, former President Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett. Pelosi has made appearances with the Congressional Black Caucus and the Congressional Progressive Caucus this week, and she’s throwing multiple dinners and receptions for new members who are in town for orientation. As Politico reported, she’s gotten Democrats like Andrew Cuomo, John Kerry, and Al Gore to call specific members. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton can’t be too far behind. The pressure is ramping up. Incoming members, who were all smiles to reporters as they showed up for their first day of orientation on Tuesday, have begun to wear a familiar look of terror and pick up their pace when they see a pack of pain-in-the-ass reporters ahead of them, ready to bug them about their first impossible vote.
Ryan and company have had their hands full swatting away what they consider lies or smears from Pelosi’s camp. The opponents take issue with Pelosi supporters’ endlessly repeated creed that “you can’t beat somebody with nobody”—i.e., that the rebels’ inability to line up a direct challenger dooms them. While some coup-curious members would like to have an idea of who would replace Pelosi before signing on, there’s truth to the rebels’ counterargument: You can, indeed, beat somebody with nobody if the somebody can’t get a majority of House votes. In 2015, after Speaker John Boehner was forced out, Kevin McCarthy was defeated by nobody: When it became clear that he couldn’t win the House Freedom Caucus’ votes, he bowed out of the race, and eventually Paul Ryan was persuaded to step up.
Full story: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/nancy-pelosi-speaker-challenge-tim-ryan-seth-moulton.html