>>4010448 5103

To go along with the theory on oil, Saudi Arabia, Khashoggi, et al.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/kashoggi-killing-saudi-aramco-ipo-london-stock-exchange-2018-10

The CEO of the London Stock Exchange has been courting the Saudi Kingdom to lure the IPO of Saudi Aramco, the country’s state-run oil company. It’s a deal potentially worth $US2 trillion.

But David Schwimmer cancelled a recent visit to Riyadh after the disappearance and presumed murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Unfortunately, London really needs a deal of that size to shore up its post-Brexit reputation.

The Saudis say they want to place their IPO in 2020 or early 2021.

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The chance to list Aramco would shore up the British capital’s financial dominance in Europe, a status very much under threat by Brexit. The LSE owns the world’s biggest derivative trade clearing house, and clearing is one of the businesses expected to be hit hardest by Brexit. More than €1 trillion ($US1.1 trillion) in trades are cleared in London every day, and other finance hubs like Frankfurt and Paris are drooling at the opportunity to syphon some of those trades away once Britain leaves the EU.

In other words, a Brexit-battered London needs this IPO. UK Prime Minister Theresa May and Schwimmer’s predecessor, Xavier Rolet, signalled that loud and clear when they went to Riyadh together last year in a bid to woo the Saudis, who were deciding between stock exchanges in New York and Asia as well.

http://studies.aljazeera.net/en/reports/2018/09/trillion-bubble-aramco-ipo-reveals-mbss-2030-vision-180918075517829.html

Western analysts, in what could be a similar disconnect, have suggested that the delay could prove to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. “MBS is not a reformer and nor is he a strongman since, with a stroke of a pen, his father can alter the succession and strip him of his power. That may happen soon, given the growing clamour from angry princes. Perhaps that is why MBS slept on a heavily guarded yacht moored off Jeddah all summer,” said author Michael Burleigh, referring to Bin Salman by his initials. (4)

The analysts position the delay of the IPO as the last of a string of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s policy fiascos, including the ill-fated 3.5-year-long war in Yemen that has significantly damaged the Kingdom’s image and projection of itself as a military power; (5) a crude attempt to control Lebanese politics by arm twisting prime minister Saad Hariri to briefly resign; (6) an out-of-proportion almost hysteric response to Canadian human rights criticism; (7) an asset and power grab dressed up as an anti-corruption campaign; (8) and a crackdown on critics of any stripe.(9)

The fact that Bin Salman’s father, King Salman, had by ordering the delay of the IPO, (10) intervened for the second time within a matter of months to curb his son’s policy initiatives fuelled speculation that the move may be the beginning of his son’s end. Salman had stepped in earlier to put an end to Bin Salman’s tiptoeing around condemning US President Donald J. Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. (11)

Bin Salman’s drawbacks notwithstanding, King Salman, an ailing octogenarian, may not want his legacy to be admitting to appointing a son as his heir who dragged the ruling Al Sauds’ kingdom down. More likely is that Bin Salman will quietly be put on a tighter leash. The delay of the IPO, positioned as the crown jewel of Vision 2030, Bin Salman’s economic and social reform program, (12) will, moreover increase pressure on him to deliver on promises of jobs and greater opportunity.