Some people speculate that arrests won't happen until 2019 so this EO will be in effect:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2018-amendments-manual-courts-martial-united-states/
Has anyone identified specific parts of the EO that could support this theory?
I'm not familiar with court martial process, and the EO on the White House website doesn't spell out either the original process or the modifications. All the details are referenced by the name of a current rule or citing additional "annexes" of the EO, so reading the statement at whitehouse.gov doesn't bring clarity to what exactly is being changed. But reading carefully the timing information in that document makes it seem that whether arrests happen before or after January 1 is not at all important.
Many sections of the EO state that the changes are only applicable to "offenses committed on or after January 1, 2019." So these changes would NOT apply for court martials relating to offenses already committed, even if the arrests are delayed until 2019.
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Sec. 5 (a) Nothing in Annex 2 shall be construed to make punishable any act done or omitted prior to January 1, 2019, that was not punishable when done or omitted.
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Sec. 6. (a) The amendments to Articles 2, 56(d), 58a, and 63 of the UCMJ enacted by sections 5102, 5301, 5303, and 5327 of the MJA apply only to cases in which all specifications allege offenses committed on or after January 1, 2019.
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Sec. 9. The amendments to Article 79 of the UCMJ enacted by section 5402 of the MJA and the amendments to Appendix 12A to the Manual for Courts-Martial, United States, made by this order apply only to offenses committed on or after January 1, 2019.
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Sec. 10. Except as provided by Rule for Courts-Martial 902A, as promulgated by Annex 2, any change to sentencing procedures: (a) made by Articles 16(c)(2), 19(b), 25(d)(2) and (3), 39(a)(4), 53, 53a, or 56(c) of the UCMJ, as enacted by sections 5161, 5163, 5182, 5222, 5236, 5237, and 5301 of the MJA; or (b) included in Annex 2 in rules implementing those articles, applies only to cases in which all specifications allege offenses committed on or after January 1, 2019.
A few sections may relate to hearings or punishment that happens after January 1, but in this case the date of arrest is not itself a critical factor.
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Sec. 7. The amendment to Article 15 of the UCMJ enacted by section 5141 of the MJA shall apply to any nonjudicial punishment imposed on or after January 1, 2019.
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Sec. 8. The amendments to Articles 32 and 34 of the UCM enacted by sections 5203 and 5205 of the MJA apply with respect to preliminary hearings conducted and advice given on or after January 1, 2019.
I don't know how fast an arrest could lead to hearings. If this EO is related to the timing of arrests, my best guess is that they want to delay arrests long enough that the first hearings are held after January 1. But I'm not sure that makes any sense, and I don't know if the changes to these particular parts of the USM and USMJ are significant for the storm.
Am I missing anything?